Democrats benefit from lower turnout. There. We said it. Their ideas and policies are so unpopular they only seem to win when nobody bothers to show up and vote. Unless, of course you look at the crazy Biden election, where Joe somehow magically received more votes than any other president, including Obama ... *cough cough*
David Shor's thread about the shifts and Trump won in November is a YUGE must-read.
Take a look:
Excited to join @ezraklein to talk through what happened in 2024.
— David Shor (@davidshor) March 18, 2025
There's a turnout story this cycle, but not the one we're used to talking about. With less-engaged and less-likely voters becoming more Republican, a larger turnout meant a more GOP electorate. pic.twitter.com/MtqDpIst93
People finally got up off their backsides and voted.
It took a crap president and an even crappier vice president to get it done but ... it happened.
Thank God.
In November, we saw a swing similar in magnitude to the realignment we saw in 2016: Hispanic, Asian, young voters, and politically disengaged voters swung towards Trump. Trump also made substantial gains among naturalized citizens (about 10% of the electorate). pic.twitter.com/sqh4CBwSVU
— David Shor (@davidshor) March 18, 2025
Almost as if flooding our country with illegals was incredibly unpopular.
A major shift we saw this cycle is that young people have gone from being one of the most progressive generations to one of the most conservative.
— David Shor (@davidshor) March 18, 2025
Republicans won 18 year old white men, white women, and men of color, and doubled their support with men under 25. pic.twitter.com/PN4PNYqaD7
Generation Z for the win.
Another massive shift Democrats saw in 2024 is that people who don't follow the news closely went from being slightly left in 2020 to voting for Trump by double digits.
— David Shor (@davidshor) March 18, 2025
On the flipside, Democrats actually increased their margins with high-information voters from 2020. pic.twitter.com/6xyHKMGWmi
Wanna bet their high information came from watching MSNBC? Heh.
Trump was just as unpopular going into November as he was in 2020.
— David Shor (@davidshor) March 18, 2025
What changed this cycle is Democrats' massive favorability decline and Republicans trust advantages on the issues that mattered most to voters this cycle (the economy/inflation/cost of living). pic.twitter.com/Yuv5rVCjc4
So, their usual campaign of blaming and hating Trump doesn't work.
Who knew?
Oh yeah, all of us.
This cycle, Trump did a good job of convincing voters he was a moderate: in our polling after the election 49% of swing voters said Harris was more liberal than they were vs 39% of voters who said Trump was more conservative than them (similar to what we saw in 2016) pic.twitter.com/qcxgH6DtiV
— David Shor (@davidshor) March 18, 2025
Trump has found his sweet spot.
Now what?
— David Shor (@davidshor) March 18, 2025
As Democrats try to shape the story against Trump, the most effective critiques of Trump are actually similar to the ways Democrats ran against Mitt Romney: he’s giving huge tax breaks to the wealthy and trying to cut programs like Social Security and Medicare. pic.twitter.com/QEi7tW0zl6
Except he's not doing any of that, but we get what Shor is saying here.
Democrats have to try something ...
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