This is a breaking story, so the 24-hour rule applies; All reports within the first 24 hours are suspect. But we will strive to give you the most accurate information.
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This comes via Fox News:
BREAKING: The Department of Justice is getting rid of Special Counsel Jack Smith before Trump takes office
— Ryan Saavedra (@RealSaavedra) November 6, 2024
They are dropping the two federal cases against Trump pic.twitter.com/YInAUzQ0Rx
One quibble is that the newscaster described the Florida documents case as being ‘dropped’ when it is more properly described as ‘dismissed.’ As in, dismissed by the judge instead of being voluntarily dropped by the prosecutors.
We are also not sure how Jack Smith feels about what the DOJ said and if he will attempt to fight the dismissal of him and the case. We have been extremely critical of him as a prosecutor. Indeed, we wrote that we thought a subtext in the Supreme Court’s immunity decision was the Court firing a warning shot at Smith. As we have said before:
From 2010 to 2014, Virginia had a governor named Bob McDonnell and he was considered a rising star in the Republican Party. He might have been a leading candidate for President in 2016, until Obama’s Justice Department went after him. He was convicted of accepting bribes, but McDonnell argued that even if he had committed all the conduct that the government alleged, the statute didn’t cover what he had done. The district court found against him. The Fourth Circuit found against him. But then he won in the Supreme Court. Unanimously. They vacated the verdict below and, as far as the law is concerned, he was never convicted nor could he be tried again. (McDonnell v. U.S., 136 S. Ct. 2355 (2016))
But by then the damage was done. We haven’t seen hide nor hair of McDonnell since then. The federal prosecutors lost, but what a coincidence? They wrecked the political career of a man who might have presented a serious challenge to the Democratic nominee in 2016.
Oh, and the prosecutor involved in that case? Jack Smith.
People keep saying Smith is an independent prosecutor, but the Biden administration knew exactly what they were getting when they appointed him: A political attack dog, who doesn’t mind stretching the law to get his man. So, yeah, maybe Smith made his own decisions, but that’s a bit like releasing a starving wolf into the same cage as a sheep and pretending you don’t know what the outcome will be. The Biden administration might have been a little fuzzy on the details, but they knew what Smith would do: He’d go after Trump and get him on anything he could.
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So, if the Fox report is accurate, we consider this to be very good news. Still, the Manhattan case (where Trump is awaiting sentencing) and the Georgia election case, where the Fani might be facing a spanking before Georgia’s appellate courts, are not going to be directly affected by this decision. The DOJ can’t drop those cases, because whatever collusion we might suspect there was between the relevant state officials and people in the federal government, ultimately, they are officially prosecuting Trump for state crimes. So, only state officials can drop those cases.
Still, we wouldn’t be surprised if the state criminal cases go away. In Georgia, the courts are handed an easy way to dispose of the case without declaring Trump innocent: They can just say that Fani Willis is disqualified from prosecuting Trump because of her affair with Nathan Wade, and thus spank the Fani so hard, she flies clean off the case. With the Manhattan case, where Trump has been found guilty and is potentially awaiting sentencing, we have been assured by lawyers more experienced in that subject matter and geographical area that normally a crime like that is likely to result in a fine, rather than prison time, and we are satisfied that this is what normally happens.
But lots of things that shouldn’t normally happen did in fact happen in Trump’s Manhattan case, as we laid out, here. As of this writing, the sentencing in that case is set for November 26. And for the first time, we will give voice to what we think Judge Merchan might have been up to, by picking that date. Maybe we were just being paranoid but we suspected that Judge Merchan was afraid that Trump would try another election challenge like he did in 2020. Bear in mind, most leftists think that the riot on January 6, 2021 was the most awful act of insurrection since the Civil War and that Trump is directly, legally and morally responsible for it. Whether you agree with that or not, there is a good chance that Merchan agrees with that. So, we think that if the election had not been decided quickly, or if Trump had claimed that the election was stolen from him again, Merchan would find an excuse to throw Trump in prison and wouldn’t think of letting him out unless Trump was suddenly the winner in that scenario. He would believe he was saving us from another insurrection. He might have even thought he was saving democracy or something overdramatic like that.
But that hasn’t happened. Trump has won relatively quickly and cleanly, and reportedly Harris has even conceded. Thus, Merchan might feel less of a desire to imprison Trump. And Merchan has to know that the verdict is not likely to stand on appeal. According to reports, Merchan broke the law to donate to Biden and an Anti-Trump PAC. That should have led him to instantly recuse himself from the case. Furthermore, there is a pending motion for a new trial because the case relied on evidence forbidden by the Supreme Court in the immunity case.
And naturally if Merchan attempted to place a president-elect in prison, that would create immediate constitutional problems that Merchan might not want to deal with. One solution might be to sentence him to prison, but suspend the sentence until he leaves office, but we are not sure that is available under New York law. But a simpler approach is to fine Trump and make sure the fine is less than the likely cost of appeals. If it costs more money to appeal than the fine, many people will just pay the fine and get on with their lives. That would give Trump the stigma of being convicted but Trump might decide life is too short to deal with this case anymore. Or Trump might be so offended by that stigma, he might still fight the case tooth and nail until it is overturned. One can only guess how this will play out.
Incidentally, the always brilliant Jonathan Turley has also been talking about these issues:
The Hill is out with my column on what now happens with the cases against Trump after what may be the largest jury verdict rendered in history. https://t.co/OzsStc3gsj
— Jonathan Turley (@JonathanTurley) November 6, 2024
From the article:
[The re-election of Trump] was also a thorough rejection of lawfare. One of the things most frustrating for Trump’s opponents was that every trial or hearing seemed to give Trump a boost in the polls. As cases piled up in Washington, New York, Florida and Georgia, the effort seemed to move more toward political acclamation than isolation.
Now, these cases are now legal versions of the Flying Dutchman — ships destined to sail endlessly but never make port.
To be blunt, a lot of his analysis was perfectly reasonable but might be made irrelevant as of the Fox News announcement. But this analysis is still valid as of this writing:
One of the most immediate cases to resume is the prosecution in Manhattan by District Attorney Alvin Bragg. Many, including commentators like CNN’s senior legal analyst Elie Honig, have denounced that case as legally flawed and obviously politically motivated.
Judge Juan Merchan has scheduled a hearing on the immunity issue for Nov. 11 and possible sentencing on Nov. 26. Merchan has shown a pronounced bias against Trump in the past, and his counsel is likely anticipating a continuation of this pattern.
Merchan could sentence Trump to jail. However, such an abusive sentencing, even a brief one, would likely trigger an expedited appeal and would likely be stayed. Trump cannot pardon himself in a state case, but the case itself is a target-rich environment of arguable legal errors that could collapse on appeal.
Turley goes on to discuss the civil fraud case that was also brought against Trump that is also facing skepticism on appeal. And as we were writing about this, we learned that Letitia James is still vowing to go forward with the case. And then Turley gets to …
… the roaring dumpster fire in Georgia. An appellate court there will decide whether District Attorney Fani Willis and her office can continue prosecuting the case. If they are forced off the case, a new prosecutor must review the matter. While some criminal allegations against defendants can be established, the alleged racketeering conspiracy against Trump is legally flawed and likely to fail on appeal.
He also talks briefly about the E. Jean Carroll case and its appeals. We will simply say that her social media posts have led us to believe the jury was wrong in that case.
In any case, Smith’s cases look like, at best, like they are on life support. Nature is healing, as the cliché goes.
Honestly, we are beginning to think this election is a political earthquake. A lot of gnashing of teeth, and maybe even some walls tumbling down…
The funniest comment on that video is ‘Legend has it the ‘M’ in MTV once stood for music.’
Nah, that’s just fake news right there.
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