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Did Trump Say Our Goal in Iran Was Regime Change? Not so Fast...

AP Photo/Matt Rourke

Overnight, we learned that America was carrying out a joint military operation with Israel against Iran. As I was heading off to breakfast, I turned on our local (D.C. area) news radio, WTOP and, using an ABC News report, they said that Trump’s explicit goal was regime change in Iran. And to prove it, they played a short excerpt from Trump’s official statement, where he said this:

Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime.

And that’s where I started to suspect that the people saying that his explicit goal is regime change might be wrong. Allow me to explain.

First, here’s Trump’s full video statement and I ask you to listen carefully:

And here’s where you can read a transcription of it:

So, let’s go over this, bit-by-bit:

A short time ago, the United States military began major combat operations in Iran. Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime. 

Do I have to point out that you can eliminate imminent threats from a government, without eliminating the government itself? Well, apparently, I do to for the people running WTOP and ABC News, but Twitchy readers are smarter than that, right?

He goes on to talk about how horrible the thugs in Iran are, saying the Iranian regime is:

A vicious group of very hard, terrible people. Its menacing activities directly endanger the United States, our troops, our bases overseas, and our allies throughout the world.

For 47 years, the Iranian regime has chanted Death to America and waged an unending campaign of bloodshed and mass murder, targeting the United States, our troops and the innocent people in many, many countries. Among the regime’s very first acts was to back a violent takeover of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, holding dozens of American hostages for 444 days. In 1983, Iran’s proxies carried out the marine barracks bombing in Beirut that killed 241 American military personnel.

In 2000, they knew and were probably involved with the attack on the USS Cole. Many died. Iranian forces killed and maimed hundreds of American service members in Iraq. The regime’s proxies have continued to launch countless attacks against American forces stationed in the Middle East in recent years, as well as U.S. naval and commercial vessels and international shipping lines. It’s been mass terror, and we’re not going to put up with it any longer.

Now, that ends with the second time it kind of sounds like he’s calling for regime change. But again, he’s only saying they are not going to put up with their international terrorism, not that they are going to end the regime. They could imagine that they were going to stop that terrorism without regime change. He goes on, talking about how awful they are, and if anything, he is understating the case:

From Lebanon to Yemen and Syria to Iraq, the regime has armed, trained and funded terrorist militias that have soaked the earth with blood and guts. And it was Iran’s proxy, Hamas, that launched the monstrous Oct. 7 attacks on Israel, slaughtering more than 1,000 innocent people, including 46 Americans, while taking 12 of our citizens hostage. It was brutal, something like the world has never seen before.

Iran is the world’s number one state sponsor of terror, and just recently killed tens of thousands of its own citizens on the street as they protested. It has always been the policy of the United States, in particular my administration, that this terrorist regime can never have a nuclear weapon. I’ll say it again, they can never have a nuclear weapon.

Again, Trump is saying that they can’t have nukes, rather than ‘because they keep trying to get nukes, we are going to wipe the regime out.’ He goes on:

That is why in Operation Midnight Hammer last June, we obliterated the regime’s nuclear program at Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan. After that attack, we warned them never to resume their malicious pursuit of nuclear weapons, and we sought repeatedly to make a deal. We tried. They wanted to do it. They didn’t want to do it. Again they wanted to do it. They didn’t want to do it. They didn’t know what was happening. They just wanted to practice evil. But Iran refused, just as it has for decades and decades.

They’ve rejected every opportunity to renounce their nuclear ambitions, and we can’t take it anymore.

Again, saying we aren’t going to take it anymore is not the same as saying ‘we are going to kill you or depose you.’ I mean, Twisted Sister wasn’t overthrowing a regime or killing anyone when they said the same thing:

(My God, it takes three minutes to get to the music? Oy vey.)

Humor aside, Trump goes on:

Instead, they attempted to rebuild their nuclear program and to continue developing the long range missiles that can now threaten our very good friends and allies in Europe, our troops stationed overseas, and could soon reach the American homeland. Just imagine how emboldened this regime would be if they ever had, and actually were armed with nuclear weapons as a means to deliver their message.

For these reasons, the United States military is undertaking a massive and ongoing operation to prevent this very wicked, radical dictatorship from threatening America and our core national security interests.

Again, you can prevent a regime from threatening this country physically, without toppling the regime—by disarming them and stopping them from re-arming or, worse yet, getting nuclear weapons.

Then Trump describes in more details what we are actually going to do:

We’re going to destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground. It will be totally again obliterated. We’re going to annihilate their navy. We’re going to ensure that the region’s terrorist proxies can no longer destabilize the region or the world and attack our forces, and no longer use their IEDs, or roadside bombs as they are sometimes called, to so gravely wound and kill thousands and thousands of people, including many Americans. And we will ensure that Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon. It’s a very simple message. They will never have a nuclear weapon.

What is not included it this? ‘We are going to drop a bomb in the Ayatollah’s lap, a la what happened to Saddam at the end of Hot Shots!’:

(That image still brings a smile to my face.)

Trump goes on:

This regime will soon learn that no one should challenge the strength and might of the United States Armed Forces. I built and rebuilt our military in my first administration and there is no military on earth even close to its power, strength or sophistication. My administration is taking every possible step to minimize the risk to U.S. personnel in the region. Even so, and I do not make this statement lightly, the Iranian regime seeks to kill. The lives of courageous American heroes may be lost, and we may have casualties. That often happens in war. But we’re doing this not for now. We’re doing this for the future. And it is a noble mission. We pray for every service member as they selflessly risk their lives to ensure that Americans and our children will never be threatened by a nuclear-armed Iran. We ask God to protect all of our heroes in harm’s way. And we trust that with his help, the men and women of the armed forces will prevail. We have the greatest in the world, and they will prevail.

To the members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, the armed forces and all of the police, I say tonight that you must lay down your weapons and have complete immunity. Or in the alternative, face certain death. So, lay down your arms. You will be treated fairly with total immunity, or you will face certain death. 

So, in that last paragraph he suggests that the Revolutionary Guard and the other military and police forces in Iran is a target, but still not the regime—not the mullahs in charge. And then he calls on regime change… but not by the U.S. or Israeli military:

Finally, to the great proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. Stay sheltered. Don’t leave your home. It’s very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.

For many years, you have asked for America’s help. But you never got it. No president was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight. Now you have a president who is giving you what you want. So let’s see how you respond. America is backing you with overwhelming strength and devastating force. Now is the time to seize control of your destiny, and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close within your reach. This is the moment for action. Do not let it pass.

May God bless the brave men and women of America’s armed forces. May God bless the United States of America. May God bless you all. Thank you.

(Emphasis added.) Thus, he is definitely saying to the people of Iran who love freedom that this is their chance to overthrow the regime. It can even be interpreted as saying that the regime won’t be there at all when he is done, but he’s still not quite saying the goal is regime change. The better way to think about it is that he is hoping for regime change and giving the Iranian people the opportunity for regime change, but he’s not saying it is our military goal.

Why is he being so cagey? One issue is legality. Let’s quote that passage towards the beginning again:

Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime.

Under the Constitution, only Congress can declare war. But what is a declaration of war? It is a document that creates a state of war where none previously existed. If war is upon us, the President doesn’t need anyone’s permission to fight back. And most people get this intuitively. For instance, when the Germans attacked us at Pearl Harbor

(…forget it, guys, I’m rolling…)

… did anyone say that the American troops were wrong to shoot back? No. Of course, that was waging war against the Germans Japanese, and everyone was fine with that. I would go as far to say technically, we never had to declare war on Japan at all. Mind you, we did declare war. But FDR could have credibly argued that no declaration was necessary because a state of war already existed with Japan.

(Animal House references aside, declaring war on Germany would have been more complicated in that scenario—which is probably one reason why FDR chose to seek a formal declaration of war.)

And actual international law (not the Calvinball that the left uses whenever it invokes the phrase ‘international law’) has long said that an imminent threat equally creates a state of war. That is, if the enemy is about to attack, you are allowed to attack them first and it is still just self-defense. In other words, if we caught the German Japanese carriers outside of Hawaii just before they launched the attack, we could have taken them out without congressional approval.

So, Trump is very deliberately invoking this doctrine: Iran presents an imminent threat to America, so we are acting without a declaration of war.

(And for the record, the document doesn’t have to be called a ‘Declaration of War.’ The courts have long recognized that if the document substantively allows the President to wage war, it is a declaration of war, which is why the various authorizations of military force are sufficient under the Constitution to cover the issue.)

The other reason for this careful language would seem to be political. Many of Trump’s supporters wouldn’t support wars for regime change (even though we kind of did that in Venezuela), and this gives him the chance to say he didn’t technically say it was the goal—even if it was the effect.

But I will note that any person listening to that speech would be reasonable in mistakenly think thinking that regime change is the goal. And for the record, I have wanted to see that regime fall since I was a teenager. I cannot believe we let that regime hurt Americans the way it has repeatedly without ending it. I consider it a failure of American will and power that we didn’t take them out sooner. But regardless of my wishes, Trump didn’t quite say that this was our goal—but he sure made it sound like he did, didn’t he?

My point is that the nuance I have been focusing on might be lost on most Americans. That presents a political danger to Trump. If the regime survives this, the perception might be that we tried to take the regime out and failed. That could hurt Trump domestically, and internationally, too. Think of how George W. Bush standing under a banner that said ‘Mission Accomplished’ hurt him. Never mind that the banner was congratulating the crew of that particular ship for what it did: It was misinterpreted as Bush saying that the war in Iraq was over.

Mind you, I don’t think Trump is going to send an occupying force into Iran. I imagine we will only see bombings and short ground operations on Iranian soil (think of the operation to capture Maduro). But if the regime doesn’t fall, it might be seen as a broken promise.

And, of course, Trump has to be wary of outright lies. For instance, how many times have you been told that George W. Bush said Iraq was an imminent threat? Yet, in fact, in the 2003 State of the Union speech, he actually specifically denied it was an imminent threat and argued that Congress should declare war before it gets that far. Here’s what he actually said:

Some have said we must not act until the threat is imminent. Since when have terrorists and tyrants announced their intentions, politely putting us on notice before they strike? If this threat is permitted to fully and suddenly emerge, all actions, all words, and all recriminations would come too late. Trusting in the sanity and restraint of Saddam Hussein is not a strategy, and it is not an option.

How many times have you heard that falsehood—that Bush called Iraq an ‘imminent threat’—uttered? Thousands by my estimation and, as a result, most normies think that this is what Bush said. So, Trump has to be wary of outright lies, too.

Finally, Trump’s call for the Iranian people to rise up might be a double-edged sword. Of course this is a great opportunity for the Iranian people, but if they don’t rise up? Then maybe Trump will write them off forever.

In other words, this might be the best time for the Iranian people to rise up in decades. So if any Iranians are reading this, first… thanks for being a VIP member. Second, and more seriously, DO IT.

Don’t just protest. It is time to fight for your freedom. Martin Luther King Jr. was not what anyone called a warhawk, but he also once said this:

‘If your opponent has a conscience, then follow Gandhi. But if your enemy has no conscience, like Hitler, then follow Bonhoeffer.’

That would be a reference to Dietrich Bonhoeffer, a German martyr in World War II, who started off peacefully resisting the Nazi regime and ended up attempting to kill Hitler.

The Iranian regime has no conscience. So, to the Iranian people I say this (and I speak only for myself): Sic semper tyrannis. And may God bless and guide your struggle against your oppressors.

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