As Twitchy reported earlier, the details and stats in the September jobs report just aren't adding up. Luckily for us, E.J. Antoni (Ph.D!) was good enough to put a thread together taking a deep dive into what is really going on with jobs in the country right now under Biden.
And as you likely already guessed, it ain't good.
Take a look:
Latest Jobs Report looks good w/ headline numbers blowing away expectations, but the devil is in the details - here's a plain-English thread on why this is a very troubling report🧵... pic.twitter.com/D2LGpgFhpl
— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) October 6, 2023
Plain English thread. We so rarely get those when it comes to anything Biden-related.
First the headlines:
— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) October 6, 2023
Sep nonfarm payrolls jump 336k; Unemployment rate flat at 3.8%; Labor force participation rate remains depressed at 62.8%; Those not in the labor force rose to roughly 5 million more than pre-pandemic - this is artificially pushing down unemployment rate: pic.twitter.com/DOYyJyYCc3
Those NOT in the labor force rose to roughly five million MORE than pre-pandemic levels.
There are various ways to account for the people missing from the labor force (4.5-5.4 million) and doing so yields an unemployment rate between 6.3 and 6.8% pic.twitter.com/6aE4lGoPfl
— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) October 6, 2023
Gotta love all that magic math from the feds.
No, not really.
Where were the jobs added in Sep? 22% came from government - an unsustainable increase; remember that private sector workers have to support those public sector jobs: pic.twitter.com/Zgnoqbhz3a
— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) October 6, 2023
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One in five were government jobs. Yikes.
What kinds of jobs were added? Entirely part-time (+151k); in fact, we LOST full-time jobs (-22k); last 3 months have seen part-time jump 1.2 million while full-time fell 700k (most since lockdowns); double counting of multiple jobholders (123k) was 37% of job gains... pic.twitter.com/kNB68O8xkm
— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) October 6, 2023
Mainly part-time. Shocker.
Who has the jobs? Let's break it down a few ways; first, foreign-born workers are already back to pre-pandemic trend while native-born workers have never recovered; since Mar '22, jobs disproportionately went to the foreign born, which brings up another important point... pic.twitter.com/WWhQxMOCbH
— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) October 6, 2023
Americans have never recovered.
Let that sink in.
Something broke in the labor market in Mar '22; the household and establishment surveys began to diverge and full-time job gains slowed dramatically; this continues today as nonfarm payrolls (establishment) jumped 336k in Sep, employment level (household) only rose 86k: pic.twitter.com/qkHgjsgDGO
— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) October 6, 2023
Biden broke something.
But back to who has the jobs, it's college grads, in spades: unemployment rate 2.1%, employment level 63 million (inline w/ pre-pandemic trend), emp-to-pop ratio 71.9%, and their earnings are outpacing inflation - why would you give this group a student loan bailout? pic.twitter.com/dTU2dJEcLW
— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) October 6, 2023
The main people working want the people struggling to pay off their loans.
Pissed yet?
Lastly, the loss of full-time jobs and their replacement w/ part-time work is helping slow wage growth, which is then negative after adjusting for inflation - real weekly earnings fell dramatically until Jun '22 and have moved sideways since: pic.twitter.com/SVYhWuNkGf
— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) October 6, 2023
Inflation rising and wages falling.
It is the Democrat way.
TLDR: people supplementing incomes w/ part-time jobs are goosing the headline numbers while underlying economic fundamentals remain weak; people absent from workforce pushing down unemployment rate; earnings not keeping up with inflation; don't expect the job gains to last... pic.twitter.com/ceAoWZ7IPc
— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) October 6, 2023
In other words, people are struggling more in Biden's economy and even though he knows it, he's still calling it a win.
Gotta love that decency on the ballot thing, eh?
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Related:
You guys, about that 'spectacular' September jobs report ... the numbers and data do NOT add up
OOF! Dems/Lefties stumble SPECTACULARLY taking victory lap over September jobs report
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