So why have we locked down for COVID again? Because if this thread Brit Hume shared on a specific study is in the least bit valid COVID is really nothing more dangerous than … wait for it … keep waiting … yeah, you can wait a little more … the FLU.
We know, we’re not supposed to call it that for some reason but once you read this thread you’ll see what we mean.
Thread. Doubt true believers will be blown away. They’ll just ignore the report. https://t.co/g6zIaIxFSH
— Brit Hume (@brithume) April 17, 2020
True believers.
HA!
Seriously, check this out:
Hold onto your hats. Get blown away with the first big seroprevalance report are coming out.
And the fatality rate just got bottomed out to influenza levels.https://t.co/6SnSD1flUp
— Justin Hart (@justin_hart) April 17, 2020
Seroprevalance what now? Who?
Don’t worry, he explains it:
Here's what the seroprevalence report means!
– The population of Santa Clara county, CA is 1.9M (the heart of Silicon Valley and home to Stanford
– Currently, only 1700 people have been diagnosed with #COVID19 and 66 people have died
– That's a crude fatality rate of 3.6%
BUT NOW pic.twitter.com/tmqmsGS3vK— Justin Hart (@justin_hart) April 17, 2020
Here we go.
Usually tests are limited to people who show symptoms, people who are sick. The seroprevelance tests people randomly to test for possible antibodies:
"the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%)."
2/— Justin Hart (@justin_hart) April 17, 2020
Recommended
Hang in there, it’s worth it.
This means that the ACTUAL population of people who have been infected with #COVID19: "estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases."
3/— Justin Hart (@justin_hart) April 17, 2020
And that means …
If the deaths are at 66 and the true infected population is 48K then the fatality rate is .14% !!
If the range is at the upper end and 81K people were infected then the fatality rate is not even .1%
— Justin Hart (@justin_hart) April 17, 2020
Soooo like the flu.
Obviously, something tragic and awful happened in NYC and the surrounding 7 counties which touch it. They still need our help there and the CFR / IFR will vary by region (just as it does from country to country). A larger study of MLB employees coming out will be telling.
— Justin Hart (@justin_hart) April 17, 2020
Big time.
And to truly compare things we need to understand how influenza is measured. So… in the 2017-18 season https://t.co/mw43k8AgR4
It was: 44M estimated symptomatic
22M went to the doctor
800K to the hospital
61K died61K / 44M is .14%
So that's the comparison level.
— Justin Hart (@justin_hart) April 17, 2020
BOOYAH again.
There’s something that is happening is that the lockdowns themselves are creating a greater problem. That’s as obvious as the nose on your face
— Malmo (@61JZ) April 17, 2020
True.
Being shut indoors with other people is not always a good thing.
I think that's true.
— Justin Hart (@justin_hart) April 17, 2020
Things are going to start moving, folks.
The data doesn’t lie.
Stay tuned.
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