What a slog, huh? But here we are, on the eve of the presidential election. I think back to July 13, the day of the first assassination attempt on Donald Trump (how wild is that sentence?). I was on a flight to Hawaii with my boys, a very upscale version of our usual summer vacation. We were on descent into Honolulu when my son told me Trump had been shot at his Butler, PA rally.
Eight days later, Joe Biden was ousted from the race and it feels like we've been on a non-stop rollercoaster since then.
When I write for Twitchy, I usually sit at a Panera Bread near my son's school. I come here after the gym, grab some coffee, cozy up in a booth and write, write, write. Today, the weather is unseasonably mild for early November and the sky is threatening rain.
And I feel completely at peace with the election. I took my mom to vote on Friday and voted myself, because tomorrow will be insane for all of us at Twitchy and I wanted my schedule to be wide open. I have done my part and now I -- and President Trump -- encourage you to do the same.
Former Pres. Trump encourages Americans to vote with just one day to go until Election Day at a rally in Raleigh, North Carolina.
— ABC News (@ABC) November 4, 2024
"Here's my only purpose in even being here today — get out and vote."
Follow live election updates: https://t.co/spOgmNWgt0 pic.twitter.com/0XHCGUAfNn
Those who have read my articles and/or follow me on X know where I stand on the election.
I think Donald Trump wins. I don't think it'll be a Reagan-style blow out, but I do think it will be comfortable. There's talk -- and I still vacillate on this -- that he might win the popular vote a la George W. Bush in 2004 (my first presidential election, by the way).
But I see a lot of people on X, including in my DMs, and texts from people who see every little waver in the polls, every fluctuation in the betting markets as a sign it's over for Trump.
So let me recap why I think Trump will win. It's more than just looking at the polls (although we'll talk about those, too).
We'll start with his opponent, Kamala Harris, and the 2020 election. Kamala ran to the Left of Bernie Sanders -- gun control, banning private health care, ending fracking. She not only received no delegates and dropped out before Iowa, she received fewer black votes than the cranky old socialist from lily-white Vermont.
Back in March, Kathleen Parker wrote an op-ed in The Washington Post calling for Kamala to step aside.
She had 28% approval as VP, the worst in history.
It is my contention, and some Democrats would agree with me, that if a primary was held after Joe Biden was booted from the race, Kamala would not be the nominee.
Speaking of Joe Biden, ask yourself why he was ousted. It's not his diminishing mental capacity. If that was it, he wouldn't be POTUS. It was because he was going to lose. Nancy Pelosi said as much.
Why was he going to lose? A terrible economy. Civil and global unrest. Increased crime. Unfettered illegal immigration.
Only 28% of Americans think the country is heading in the right direction. Historically, incumbents lose when that number is that low.
CNN's Harry Enten WARNS signs of Trump victory were THERE ALL ALONG
— Resist the Mainstream (@ResisttheMS) October 30, 2024
Are the polls correct this time? pic.twitter.com/lSJi0IZ6MB
Kamala -- part and parcel of the Biden-Harris administration -- cannot unburden herself form the baggage of being the incumbent.
By her own admission, Kamala wouldn't have done anything differently than Biden.
For a period of time, she was the shiny new thing. With an assist from the media, it gave her at least the illusion of momentum. But we don't trust the media. They lie all the time. Why on earth would we trust them when they, say, breathlessly cover an obvious outlier poll that has Trump down by 3% in Iowa?
But the more she spoke, the more she flip-flopped on policies, and the more Americans got to know her, the less palatable she became.
Her only selling point -- her only selling point -- is that she's not Donald Trump. That's it.
Speaking of Donald Trump. I get it. People hate him. I hated him and didn't vote for him in 2016. He wasn't my first choice in the 2024 primaries. Like Scott Jennings, I was disappointed with his behavior in January 2021 and not wild about how he handled COVID. But you know what I did like?
I liked no wars. I have a 17-year-old son who will turn 18 in the spring. I have 15- and 11-year-old sons, too. I don't like that Kamala's new BFF Liz Cheney would send them off to die in a war.
I liked being able to afford gas. And groceries. This has been the biggest polling issue throughout the campaign. It's also one that Kamala has absolutely sucked on. She's yammered about price gouging and admitted -- several times -- food is too darned expensive. But when asked for a real plan? Nothing. She's got nothing.
I liked that my fellow Americans didn't have to choose between putting food on the table or leaving the lights on.
I tend to think I am more in touch with the average American than Cardi B., Julia Roberts, or Beyoncé, so I have to believe more Americans agree with me than with rich, privileged celebrities who don't have to worry if the price of eggs skyrockets.
Things were objectively better under Trump. I am not the only one to see this.
On top of all of that, the Left has become unglued. Those of us who support or vote for Trump are Nazis. Garbage. Anti-America. Stupid. There hasn't been a norm or ethical standard -- in politics, journalism, academia -- they haven't blown up in their obsession to defeat the BAD ORANGE MAN. It's not helping their cause and, as I argued here, is pushing people towards Trump.
Now, to the numbers.
I know if I were running a campaign, I would rather be where the Trump team is now versus Kamala's camp. Trends favor Trump. Swing state polling favors Trump.
Decision Desk HQ/@thehill Battleground Poll Averages:
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 4, 2024
Florida - 31 polls
🟥 Donald Trump (R): 51.6% (+6.7)
🟦 Kamala Harris (D): 44.9%
[R+2.0 since last month]
Nevada - 54 polls
🟥 Donald Trump (R): 49.0% (+1.8)
🟦 Kamala Harris (D): 47.2%
[R+2.8 since last month]
Georgia - 65…
Enthusiasm seems to favor Trump, even according to David Axelrod and this memo from the Trump team:
MEMO: The Democrat Turnout Problem Heading Into Election Day pic.twitter.com/oMyRtDOayX
— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) November 4, 2024
Going back to what I said earlier -- this completely tracks with the fact Kamala wasn't elected by Democratic Party voters. She was installed. Why would they be enthusiastic about a candidate foisted upon them?
Every metric, every thought experiment, every logical argument points to a Trump win. The only question is how much of a win. That remains to be seen.
A win, naturally, hinges on those of us who haven't voted going to the polls tomorrow. Lines will be long. Stand in them. He can only win if we vote.
GO. VOTE.
Before I go, however, I have to address the question hanging over the heads of many: what if Kamala does win? Then she wins.
Republicans will have the House, and likely will regain the Senate, even if Trump loses. Therefore, her agenda is neutered from the outset. We also have the Supreme Court. It will suck. But so did the Obama years. So did the Biden years.
We will, somehow, endure and we will be okay.
But I don't think we have to worry about that.
Now, get to the polls. Let's do this.
