Jake Sherman has a dire warning for Dems on Mitch McConnell and the debt ceiling

As we approach the debt ceiling. . .

The thing that’s scaring me about the debt ceiling is I’m reading “of course they’ll cave at the last second, they’d be insane not to” but written about different sides

— Benjy Sarlin (@BenjySarlin) October 5, 2021

. . .Punchbowl News’ Jake Sherman has a dire warning for Dems: Sen. Mitch McConnell “isn’t blinking.”

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McConnell:

The Incentives: Even after Republicans spent like drunken sailors during the Trump years, they’re eager to have the political conversation turn back toward the national debt and deficits — never mind the hypocrisy.

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) October 5, 2021

This whole episode has to be viewed as a political attack by McConnell on the Democrats’ reconciliation package. Chaos helps derail the Democrats’ agenda. McConnell is telling you exactly what he thinks day in and day out.

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) October 5, 2021

And McConnell and Senate Republicans are particularly peeved that Democrats keep thumbing their nose at reconciliation, which they believe was the most logical path to raise the debt limit. This has led to Republicans digging in deeper

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) October 5, 2021

McConnell also can’t be shamed.

Strengths: he has the entire senate GOP behind him. For now. We struggle to come up w 10 Rs who will split from him

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) October 5, 2021

4) The Weakness: A debt crisis isn’t like a government shutdown. If the U.S. government technically defaults on its $28 trillion-plus debt, the short and long-term damage to the American economy would be “catastrophic,” according to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) October 5, 2021

No. 1: Will Senate Republicans get weak-kneed as the crisis point approaches? No. 2: If McConnell alters his position and decides to allow this vote to proceed in regular order, Senate Republicans are staking out a position that would be hard to retreat from politically.

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) October 5, 2021

5) Their End Game: Here’s something that kind of flew under the radar. In McConnell’s letter to Biden on Monday, the Kentucky Republican sought to bypass Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and appeal directly to Biden. message: McConnell isnt blinking

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) October 5, 2021

Sherman also reported that Majority Leader Chuck Schumer “is sick of McConnell and is trying to break him.” Good luck with that:

SCHUMER is sick of McConnell and is trying to break him. he believes McConnell is a phony who comes up with a BS standard for every situation when it fits his political needs.

Wed cloture vote puts all Rs on the record pic.twitter.com/7eoUeENFxO

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) October 5, 2021

Strengths: McConnell and The GOP’s position is extreme. they arent only voting no, they are filibustering a debt limit increase.

Schumer has vowed no debt limit as part of reconciliation. he has to find a way out. And its getting close.

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) October 5, 2021

One idea you will her more and more about in the coming days is a carve-out rule where a vote on the debt ceiling can’t be filibustered:

.@SenatorDurbin says if the Republican filibuster holds, Democrats should pierce it to lift the debt limit: "The idea that you can filibuster the debt ceiling is outrageous. That to me discredits the argument that the filibuster is in fact the way to get bipartisanship. Baloney."

— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) October 4, 2021

I asked @SenatorDurbin if he's arguing that Democrats should use 50+1 votes to do away with the filibuster for the purposes of the debt ceiling.

He says it's his personal view, not a caucus position.

He adds: "I think we ought to have that conversation."

— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) October 4, 2021

From lib journo Josh Marshall:

My best guess is that the debt default is going down to the wire and will end with a filibuster carve out.

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) October 5, 2021

But will Sens. Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin be on board with that?