Pollster's thread on effect 'MAGA Forces' and 'deplorables' rhetoric has on polling speaks volumes

Doug P. | 3:50 PM on September 17, 2022

Democrats such as Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden like to talk about “unity” and working together. President Biden campaigned on “unity” and not long after that he was slamming “MAGA Forces” as being a “threat to democracy” in a speech that had creepy optics:

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Couple that with Hillary Clinton calling Trump supporters as being in a “basket of deplorables” and you have to wonder what effect that has on what people tell pollsters. Trafalgar Group pollster Robert Cahaly has an interesting thread about what all that kind of rhetoric does for the polling industry:

In 2016 Trump supporters were called “Deplorables” and other unflattering names. This was a major contributor to the “shy Trump voter” phenomenon that “most” polling missed which resulted in a major loss in public confidence for polling flowing the election.

— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 17, 2022

Many people are no doubt less than forthcoming with pollsters. To what degree is anybody’s guess but Biden and others demonizing one side has to have some effect:

In 2020 people who supported Trump or espoused conservative values out of step with “Woke” culture found themselves being “canceled” or “doxed”. This led to “hidden voters” that “most” polling under counted, therefore Trump support in key battleground states exceeded expectations

— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 17, 2022

Now that the Biden administration has essentially classified “MAGA Republicans” as a threat to democracy marshaling federal law enforcement to focus on them. This move has created a new type of voter that will be even harder to poll or even estimate.

— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 17, 2022

I call this new group “submerged voters”. They aren’t putting stickers on their cars, signs in their yards, posting their opinions, or even answering polls. At this point I think it’s fair to say that Biden’s pursuit of and attacks on “MAGA Republicans” has created an army of

— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 17, 2022

voters who will be virtually impossible to poll (even for us) and more difficult still to estimate.

The 2022 Republican turnout will likely be higher than any of the polls or models are showing. All polls (including ours) will understate the impact of these “submerged voters”.

— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 17, 2022

Just a few things to think about. Of course some polls are just intended to support narratives or prop up a particular candidate if needed, but there are still a couple of honest pollsters out there interested in an accurate reflection of what voters are thinking.