Fretting about polling numbers in June the year before an election is a fruitless experience, as illustrated by what the Republican primary polls looked like in June of 2015.
FLASHBACK: NBC GOP primary poll June 2015
Bush 22%
Walker 17%
Rubio 14%
Carson 11%
Huckabee 9%
Paul 7%
Perry 5%
Cruz 4%
Christie 4%
Fiorina 2%
TRUMP 1%
Graham 1%
Kasich 1%https://t.co/yxxpeoNAlv— Steven Dennis (@StevenTDennis) June 16, 2019
We have a long way to go.
Rubio, then in 3d place, went on to win 2 contests (MN & Puerto Rico). None of the others in the top 7 won a single primary. https://t.co/DjEbHoKjaV
— Dan McLaughlin (@baseballcrank) June 16, 2019
And not just in primary polls, but also in general election polls that say Trump is going to lose in a landslide, as pointed out by Mara Liasson.
check this out:
-June 1983: Mondale 49%, Reagan 39%
-June 1991: George H.W. Bush 51%, Democrat 28%, Don't know 21%
-June 1995: Dole 48%, Clinton 44%
-June 2011: Republican 44%, Obama 39% https://t.co/vqaXmtMm00— Mara Liasson (@MaraLiasson) June 15, 2019
Republicans had an unusual scenario with Trump coming from nowhere to take the whole thing over and never look back.
This poll was in the field 6/14-18. Trump announced on 6/16. A Fox News poll conducted a week later had him at 11. He took the lead in July and never gave it up. It's not *that* early. https://t.co/Ggx4LfJdBN
— Josh Barro (@jbarro) June 16, 2019
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Democrats do not (at least for now) have such a person waiting in the wings.
I guess what this illustrates is that, if Michelle Obama announced a presidential campaign tomorrow, she might well be in the lead by July in a way nobody foresaw. Except Michelle Obama isn't going to run for president.
— Josh Barro (@jbarro) June 16, 2019
But hey, we’re down to ONLY 505 DAYS ‘TIL THE 2020 ELECTION!
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