It’s likely New York will lose a seat in the House next cycle and if Dems get to redraw the map, it’s big trouble for the NY GOP:
New York is poised to lose a seat. But if Dems end up drawing the map, it could be their biggest weapon of the redistricting cycle.
They could merge Stefanik/Tenney (if Tenney's lead holds in #NY22) and severely threaten other Rs, converting a 19D-8R map into 23D-3R (below). pic.twitter.com/zEnqOnxhd9
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) January 27, 2021
Here’s what the Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman is hearing:
Upstate: under the scenario (above) I've heard floated…
1. #NY27 Jacobs (R) would be axed
2. A safe new Syracuse/Utica #NY22 for Anthony Brindisi (D)
3. A new Ithaca/Kingston district, #NY12, for state Sen. Michelle Hinchey (D)
4. All current Dem incumbents get Biden +10 seats— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) January 27, 2021
A blue state getting bluer in the House:
One other feature of this play for Upstate: Dems would put Rep. John Katko (R)'s home in Camillus in a Syracuse-less #NY24 (purple), but keep it winnable for themselves in case Katko retires/loses a primary.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) January 27, 2021
Btw, longtime NY observers will recall that state Sen. Michelle Hinchey (D)'s dad, late Rep. Maurice Hinchey (D), represented a very similar Ithaca/Binghamton/Ulster district back in the 1990s/2000s.
The theory: her last name would carry a lot of appeal in the #NY12 above.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) January 27, 2021
Trump-winning districts on Long Island could be targeted, too:
NYC/Long Island: Dems could endanger Rep. Lee Zeldin (R) by adding Dem parts of Babylon/Islip to #NY01 and Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R) by adding Park Slope/Red Hook to Staten Island's #NY11.
Under the hypothetical below, both go from Trump CDs to double digit Biden CDs. pic.twitter.com/88gkPGrGJV
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) January 27, 2021
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But in New York City, Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jerry Nadler would be safe:
In this scenario, Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D)'s "Silk Stocking" #NY12 would be eliminated (she's 74 and nearly lost her last primary, so could retire). The Upper East Side would be given to Rep. Jerry Nadler (D)'s #NY10 and Astoria/Greenpoint would go to AOC's #NY14.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) January 27, 2021
As would other majority-minority districts:
NYC closeup: majority-minority districts would be preserved for…#NY05 Meeks (D), #NY06 Meng (D)#NY07 Velazquez (D)#NY08 Jeffries (D)#NY09 Clarke (D)#NY13 Espaillat (D)#NY14 Ocasio-Cortez (D)#NY15 Torres (D)#NY16 Bowman (D) pic.twitter.com/GpZicmVZq8
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) January 27, 2021
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Related:
This thread explains why things are already looking good for House Republicans in 2022 https://t.co/wNalqV8tIT
— Twitchy Team (@TwitchyTeam) January 26, 2021
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