Let’s check in with Florida, shall we?
Early turnout reports indicate #Florida is witnessing a GOP voter participation % of historic proportions
— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) November 3, 2020
And, yes, this is good news for Republicans and President Trump:
Florida Republicans have come out strong so far on Election Day. Can Democrats, who came in with a lead, keep their margins down? And then there’s the matter of independents.
A little update in Playbook PM’s Halftime Huddlehttps://t.co/9PlZ5nKYl1
— Marc Caputo (@MarcACaputo) November 3, 2020
Money quote:
AS OF AROUND NOON, there were around 1.1 million votes cast on Election Day, with Republicans accounting for nearly half of the ballots and Democrats and independents splitting the rest. If that pace holds, Trump is favored to win the state.
But Florida’s Marc Caputo adds this caveat:
— Marc Caputo (@MarcACaputo) November 3, 2020
The Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman notes that turnout so far is “as expected” but “it’ll be up to Biden to close that gap w/ a lead among NPA voters”:
So far, as expected, Rs are far outpacing Ds in Election Day turnout – and we might expect that Rs will ultimately turn out significantly more voters than Ds.
It'll be up to Biden to close that gap w/ a lead among NPA voters. But keep in mind, Biden doesn't need FL; Trump does.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 3, 2020
Nate Silver, FWIW, says that we also don’t know how many Republican voters are crossing over and voting for Biden:
Starting to fall down the Florida election day turnout rabbit hole. Already went for a run so I think I'd just better go and play some FIFA or something.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 3, 2020
The one thing I'll say is that there's just not really that much you can tell without knowing who people voted for. Whether the electorate ends up at say R+3 or R+1 by party registration isn't as important as whether Biden wins indies by 20 points or loses them by 2.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 3, 2020
And you can find high-quality polls showing Biden with a big lead among independents, a narrower lead among independents, and others with a tie or very small Trump lead among independents. They're all over the place. Same for how much of a crossover GOP-for-Biden vote there is.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 3, 2020
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