A new poll from ABC News and the Washington Post says Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by 7 points in Michigan and 17 points in Wisconsin:
New from @abc / @postpolls – "COVID surge hurts Trump in Wisconsin; Biden leads in a closer Michigan contest"
WI
Biden 57
Trump 40MI
Biden 51
Trump 44https://t.co/YuLsCerREJ via @ABC— Rick Klein (@rickklein) October 28, 2020
But does anyone buy it?
I trust ABC/WaPo national polls more than their state polls. The Michigan lead is very plausible. (It's not "narrow" but bc of the MOE, which applies to each variable, that language is protocol). I don't buy this Wisconsin margin at all. https://t.co/f0Fq7QxYdF
— Aaron Astor (@AstorAaron) October 28, 2020
“C’mon, man!” says Real Clear Politics’ Tom Bevan:
Does anyone really believe Trump is going to lose Wisconsin by 17 points? As Biden would say, "C'mon man!"https://t.co/B5ndshuztS
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) October 28, 2020
And note their language. The 7-point lead in Michigan is described as “narrow”:
I have been reporting on polls for 20 years and don't believe I've ever seen a 7-point lead, especially 6 days before an election, described as "narrow." https://t.co/UUDgVvZ70p
— Susan J. Demas ? (@sjdemas) October 28, 2020
Maybe they don’t believe their own poll?
Major media outlets seem to be portraying the race as closer than it is. Biden beating Trump by 7 in Michigan, a state Trump won in 2016 and almost certainly needs to win to be re-elected, is not a "narrow" lead. https://t.co/N3vGcITMd7
— Michael David Smith (@MichaelDavSmith) October 28, 2020
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