First up, pollsters aren’t seeing a post-convention bump for Joe Biden in the all-important swing states:
New polls out today show little/no bump for Biden in swing states. https://t.co/V4Aoswsz0W
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) August 26, 2020
Do’h!
Heading into the Democrat convention we expected a huge surge in the polls for Joe Biden.
It didn't happen. https://t.co/KoitzO5dt4
— Matt Wolking (Text TRUMP to 88022) (@MattWolking) August 26, 2020
It’s like 2016 is repeating itself:
Those PA, WI, MI, NC numbers sure look pretty familiar. https://t.co/R3036zQlpJ
— Josh Holmes (@HolmesJosh) August 26, 2020
And Nate Silver reports “the ‘fundamentals’ are improving for Trump”:
Fundamentally, the "fundamentals" are improving for Trump.
* The economy is getting better, although that could be threatened by Congressional inaction.
* COVID cases are going down, although that could reverse itself at pretty much any time.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 26, 2020
* The protests are getting less coverage than they were before, and public opinion about them is becoming less sympathetic.
All of these are reasons to think the race could tighten.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 26, 2020
There are some counterarguments too. Even if COVID cases are decreasing, the downstream consequences (i.e. disruption to schools) are still piling up and will likely continue to do so thru November. The Post Office could be a big negative story for Trump.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 26, 2020
Still, it's not hard to envision the race tightening, and indeed the 538 model did expect the race to tighten somewhat, which is one reason why it has continued to give Trump much better odds than other models.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 26, 2020
And here are some 2016 vs. 2020 comparisons. . .
Trump is doing better today than he was in 2016 in Michigan:
We do see a similar trend in a handful of other states. Trump down less in Michigan today than he was in 2016. pic.twitter.com/KNdmtdc5f7
— Dan McLaughlin (@baseballcrank) August 26, 2020
And he’s doing better in Pennsylvania today than in 2016, too:
Then there's Pennsylvania. pic.twitter.com/DkJbEkz5oV
— Dan McLaughlin (@baseballcrank) August 26, 2020
He’s about the same in Florida:
Florida is almost exactly where it was this time in 2016. pic.twitter.com/szFNCTAF6S
— Dan McLaughlin (@baseballcrank) August 26, 2020
And very similar to 2016 in North Carolina:
North Carolina. pic.twitter.com/inrLM2s1t3
— Dan McLaughlin (@baseballcrank) August 26, 2020
He’s doing better today than in 2016 in Ohio:
Ohio. pic.twitter.com/EIMekVCJFZ
— Dan McLaughlin (@baseballcrank) August 26, 2020
Georgia looks about the same:
Georgia pic.twitter.com/7vdOudgmzy
— Dan McLaughlin (@baseballcrank) August 26, 2020
Minnesota:
Minnesota looks somewhat similar – good news for Biden, since Hillary won – but then, the final polls there in 2016 massively overstated Hillary's margin. pic.twitter.com/sfNYGQDmOf
— Dan McLaughlin (@baseballcrank) August 26, 2020
Iowa:
Minnesota looks somewhat similar – good news for Biden, since Hillary won – but then, the final polls there in 2016 massively overstated Hillary's margin. pic.twitter.com/sfNYGQDmOf
— Dan McLaughlin (@baseballcrank) August 26, 2020
But he’s worse in Arizona:
The apples-to-apples comparisons, even taken at face value, are not all good news for Trump. Arizona is in noticeably worse shape: pic.twitter.com/NTjXMNLK4K
— Dan McLaughlin (@baseballcrank) August 26, 2020
And further back in Nevada:
Also, Trump is further back in Nevada, the one state where he led in the RCP average going into the election & lost (a common occurrence for Republicans in Nevada). pic.twitter.com/NBsA2kteoG
— Dan McLaughlin (@baseballcrank) August 26, 2020
There are fewer undecideds in 2020, however:
Anyway, there are logical reasons why Trump is in bigger trouble than at this point in 2016, an election he won by the skin of his teeth, notably that there are fewer undecideds, no anti-incumbent trend in his favor, Biden's lower unfavorables.
— Dan McLaughlin (@baseballcrank) August 26, 2020
But, Dems should be pretty terrified right about now:
But: you look at how the results in November diverged from the August polling, and there should be some humility about where we stand.
— Dan McLaughlin (@baseballcrank) August 26, 2020
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