Good news.
The post-Super Bowl celebration in Tampa where thousands were seen partying without masks or social distancing was not a superspreader event:
Data shows SBLV celebration “super spreader” predictions were little more than freezing cold takes. https://t.co/jRG7shXSDG
— OutKick (@Outkick) February 21, 2021
Details here via the Hillsborough County Covid-19 dashboard:
2 weeks since the Super Bowl, cases have plummeted nearly 30% in the Tampa Bay county. Hmmm.
Hillsborough County – COVID-19 Data Dashboard https://t.co/qt6rZkCrWf
— Nick (@NickAtNight128) February 20, 2021
“CoronaBros” hardest hit:
Well, well, well…. this has to be tough for CoronaBros everywhere. https://t.co/hipLIadr5B
— OutKick (@Outkick) February 21, 2021
Eventually, experts will realize that being outside without a mask on is safe, right? RIGHT?
Here’s a good thread on how we keep reading that these are superspreader events but then when they’re not, it’s not reported.
TL;DR: “It’s been a year and I am not aware of a single outdoor-only superspreader event.”
I’m not saying it was a wise thing to rush out to celebrate. But how many events like this have we had? Outdoors but widely condemned, confidently called called superspreader. But wasn’t, barely reported. (UNC tests all students on campus twice a week and off campus once a week). https://t.co/qWYZKnX1fR
— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) February 21, 2021
The amount of energy we spend confidently predicting catastrophe from things we can see while ignoring a year of evidence on where the high risk are—indoors, workplaces, mostly poor and minority essential workers, crowded housing, congregate living, elderly.
— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) February 21, 2021
No doubt young people can contribute a lot to spread, but the way to deal with that is to figure out the risks and avoid driving them into crowded indoor socializing and to test them often. (Also don’t gather them in dorms & send them home in a panic without testing. Like Fall.)
— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) February 21, 2021
Nope. It was a maskless and prolonged indoor event. We just got more media pictures from the outdoors portion because… looking for keys under the light is easier. (Outdoor transmission isn't impossible. Just really rare and much harder). https://t.co/MAYP8JfDcx
— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) February 21, 2021
I published my first piece pleading to keep parks open & letting people socialize outdoors on April 1st 2020. I stand by every word. It wasn't that complicated. The epi data, the reasons, the sociology of a sustainable pandemic response. It was all there. https://t.co/ABfK5b9Be2 pic.twitter.com/ldahx4cLj0
— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) February 21, 2021
I was trying, desperately, to warn us to get ready in February of 2020—and being lectured about being too panicky—but also trying to swat down the baseless moral panic once we started having more clarity on the shape of the risk—and being told, a lot, to stay in my lane.
— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) February 21, 2021
It makes sense to be extra cautious at first when facing a murky, exponential threat. But if we don't then adjust the communication and the rules as the shape of the risk becomes clearer & have proper trade-off discussions, we get fatigue, non-compliance and *more risk* not less.
— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) February 21, 2021
This is what I'd expect. It's been a year and I am not aware of a single outdoor-only superspreader event. It's not impossible but after a year, it seems low enough risk that I don't really worry about it until we get one. https://t.co/FQGNtvrSza
— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) February 21, 2021
People asking about variants. Of course. We should *up* our cautions, till we get more clarity. This was my piece from last day of 2020. Absolutely stand by it. New murky threat with exponential fuel: up your cautions. Clarity+data? Adjust & tamper down. https://t.co/FDVW17yeMQ pic.twitter.com/R9A47lA9BL
— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) February 21, 2021
Here's by piece pleading to stop the beach-scolding from last July, with a thread that kept going and going… I had stopped updating it but it turns out we're not tired of beach-scolding so some new entries recently. https://t.co/z8aKG05gfq?
— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) February 21, 2021
REMEMBER THE FLORIDA GRIM REAPER BEACH JERK? The lawyer dressed up as grim reaper, approaching complete strangers in Florida beaches and holding lengthy, scolding conversations with them posted on social media for ridicule and many RTs? Probably the only risk they faced was him.
— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) February 21, 2021
Cognitive biases, moral panics, authoritarian impulses, victim-blaming, groupthink, traditional & social media distortions, ignoring everything we know about human behavior & sometimes even viruses, philosophical frequentism, terrible risk-assessment… https://t.co/pSKUa7hxBH
— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) February 21, 2021
I'd start the missteps on January 1, 2020 to be honest. Downplaying an exponential risk, being unable to judge what we were seeing before & after Wuhan lockdown, ignoring/ridiculing Asian expertise (remember masks are superstition and/or harmful pieces?) https://t.co/qdYMuOswGU
— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) February 21, 2021
Again, you *could* find the info on social media if you manage to find & follow the right experts but how are people supposed to distinguish the "right" experts from others with excellent credentials, education & positions.. who are, ahem, not so right? Yeah, unsolvable at scale.
— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) February 21, 2021
To the people telling me about the Sturgis rally. Forget the trad/social media moral panic—and the speculative reporting & headlines. We have actual papers. The event had a huge indoor component & what spread we do know happened in restaurants/workplaces. https://t.co/x7fdZUFpli pic.twitter.com/cD8jDxLZpM
— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) February 21, 2021
I don't know. It's not impossible but to me, it looks less likely than it did in early January—more data. Cases down, vaccinations up, seasonality in our favor. I support sensible precautions (go outdoors! wear masks indoors!) & vaccinating as fast we can. https://t.co/TAHDOC9aSh
— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) February 21, 2021
Predictions beyond a month or so are hard (too many variables interacting/too many unknowns) but here's what we do know. Things ARE absolutely looking up. But we're not out of the woods yet. But there are many things we *can* do more safely now, and even more after vaccination.
— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) February 21, 2021
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