The New York Times has joined the rest of the mainstream media in changing the definition of “recession” — we just had two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, which would mean we’re in a recession. Kyla Scanlon thinks differently, and writes for the Times that there are many factors to consider, including vibes, and people are “silly and messy.” If the American public thinks we’re going into a recession, those expectations “could very well lead to one.”
“Right now, with worsening data, many people’s expectations have come together to expect a recession,” writes @kylascan. “And those expectations could very well lead to one.” https://t.co/Y0vg6zvSzH
— New York Times Opinion (@nytopinion) August 4, 2022
Scanlon writes:
The vibes in the economy are … weird. That weirdness has real effects. A recent study found that broader vibes do indeed drive what people do, with media narratives about the economy accounting for 42 percent of the fall in consumer sentiment in the second half of 2021.
Indicators like G.D.P. are important, but much of the time, the root of economic problems lies with expectations. When we think about things like inflation, financial conditions and monetary policy, it’s best to frame them through people. And people are, of course, silly and messy. Far too many economists and experts forget that the economy is really a bunch of people “peopling” around and trying to make sense of this world.
When policy is more focused on indicators that might not fully reflect reality, and not on the silly and messy people whom the policy is meant to serve, we enter dangerous territory.
There is no recession yet. Right now we are in a “vibe-cession” of sorts — a period of declining expectations that people are feeling based on both real-world worries and past experiences. Things are off. And if they don’t improve, we will have to worry about more than bad vibes.
Once again, it’s not President Joe Biden failing; it’s us, the American people, failing Joe Biden.
It's real. pic.twitter.com/LVtg40QNqX
— Stephen L. Miller (@redsteeze) August 4, 2022
Your bad vibes are to blame for this recession, man. Why can't you just chill about the economy and be cool?
— Stephen L. Miller (@redsteeze) August 4, 2022
"We need an analysis on the economy and this possible recession. Know of anyone?"
"Hold on, let me open Tinder.."
— Stephen L. Miller (@redsteeze) August 4, 2022
OH! It's the vibes that are killing our economy. Here I was blaming it on government incompetence like a douche. https://t.co/kANcjeOjDR
— Brandon Morse (@TheBrandonMorse) August 4, 2022
If I think it’s bad, and that leads to a recession, then it’s my fault.
Got it.
— Sal Nuzzo (@salnuzzo) August 4, 2022
Everything is our fault. Why didn’t they have better messaging? Why?!? 😩
— Andy Lancaster (@andylancaster) August 4, 2022
when The NY Times keeps referring to the economy as “weird” 🤪🙄 pic.twitter.com/GNlgiC8Bnr
— LB (@beyondreasdoubt) August 4, 2022
when things are bad but the media doesn't want to admit it, they call it "weird"
— CommodoreBTC 🍊 (@CommodoreBTC) August 4, 2022
It's a MALAISE
— jim scott (bully,merchant of fear,peddler of lies) (@realdirkg) August 4, 2022
Ugh it’s our fault again! Why do we keep letting Biden down??
— Joey Jo-Jo Jr Shabadoo (@JoShabadoo) August 4, 2022
Ugggh this whole recession is such a mood, sis.
— Hannibal Lecture (@AltKurtis) August 4, 2022
Gaslighting level: Grand Master.
— Zizz (@hraphanidousai) August 4, 2022
We’re not in a recession, it’s just that the vibes in the economy are really weird.
Related:
THERE it is! Allow The Economist to explain ‘the silver linings of a recession’ https://t.co/17KI5aZl2Z
— Twitchy Team (@TwitchyTeam) July 30, 2022
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