So yesterday we told you about how Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the private military company (‘PMC’) called Wagner basically declared war on the Russian Ministry of Defense. And we told you that we are not going to pretend we are suddenly experts on Russia—and despite staying in a Holiday Inn Express last night, we still aren’t experts today.
But there are lot of things happening, including ‘Crying’ Adam Kinzinger taking a weird victory lap over the whole thing.
First off, we have a bunch of coverage from ‘Visegrád 24’ which holds itself out as an aggregator of central and eastern European news:
BREAKING:
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023
Prigozhin releases a new statement saying that Russia is corrupt because of Putin and that:
“we will destroy everything around us, we are all ready to die - all 25 thousand, and then another 25 thousand, because the Russian people must be liberated” pic.twitter.com/ntdqZ4YlJP
There are mounting calls for mass protests to start in Moscow and St. Petersburg to call for an end to the invasion of Ukraine and for Putin to step down and to establish democracy. pic.twitter.com/5rbxFmZ2xm
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023
BREAKING:
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023
The Wagner Group has smashed through the first road barriers on the way to Moscow pic.twitter.com/LdzVXjqy7L
BREAKING:
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023
Street fights have broken out on the streets of Rostov between pro-Wagner and pro-Putin supporters. pic.twitter.com/hETymzmqh1
BREAKING:
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023
Hundreds of trucks have rolled out to block the entrances to Moscow from the city’s ring-road pic.twitter.com/8MGJII3GFR
BREAKING:
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023
The Wagner Group has now reached the Lipetsk region.
Moscow is only 4 hours away by car.
The Battle of Moscow could start this evening. pic.twitter.com/SBISoA56OK
BREAKING:
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023
The Russian Volunteer Corps released a video announcing that they are joining the coup.
"We call on all supporters of the RDK to take active action. We all have a unique chance to determine our fate and the fate of our Motherland."
pic.twitter.com/pbFQitXgpB
A military column of Kadyrov’s Chechen soldiers has just arrived to the Rostov region.
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023
Looks like the battle between the Wagner Group and Kadyrov’s Chechens is about to start pic.twitter.com/jKLmm2LoSu
We feel pretty confident based on numerous reports that Wagner has taken Rostov, although as you can see from this Tweet, it might end up being moved to the contested column.
BREAKING:
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023
The Wagner Group has announced that most of the Russian Army units in the Lipetsk region have switched sides and joined the Wagner Group military column heading toward Moscow pic.twitter.com/62vUpoaZur
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Russian media outlets are now reporting that Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov has just left Russia for Turkey.
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023
Incidentally, the Deputy PM happens to be the richest member of the government (at least according to reported wealth).
BREAKING:
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023
The Russian Army has started building machine gun positions on the south-western entrances on the ring-road to Moscow.
It’s the expected attack direction of the Wagner Group.
Is the Battle of Moscow about to happen? pic.twitter.com/VmRrt9vxBW
BREAKING:
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023
Putin’s plane has left Moscow for St. Petersburg.
Looks like he is fleeing from the advancing Wagner Group military column pic.twitter.com/g1dORr9BDb
New video shows that the Russian Army struck a bus traveling between Wagner troops today.
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023
The driver and passengers are said to have all been killed.
pic.twitter.com/8vd5H2m2kx
Russia is now bombing oil depots in the Voronezh region to prevent the Wagner Group from refueling their military column on their way to Moscow pic.twitter.com/QgMajhXfBV
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023
Yes, that sure as heck is starting to sound like war, although we are not sure how long this war will go on.
BREAKING:
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023
Russian military helicopters are bombing fuel depots held by the Wagner Group in the Voronezh region. pic.twitter.com/X3nuViprvm
The same account points us toward a Tweet that we will be editing. This is a screenshot we have:
However, we have deliberately cut off the picture because it basically photoshops (pixelated) women’s breasts onto Putin's body. Visegrád includes that screenshot, unedited, in a Tweet that says ‘BREAKING: The Liberal Democratic Party (Zhirinovsky’s party, which is the 3rd largest in Russia and until now a Putin-ally) just Tweeted that ‘Putin is a p*ssy.’’ We tracked down the original Tweet, and ran it through Google’s translation engine and it says ‘Official commentary of artificial intelligence Vladimir Zhirinovsky in connection with recent events: Putin is a woman.’ Yeah, we are not 100% sure what a good, non-computer-generated translation would look like, but it clearly is a deeply insulting Tweet. And do we have to tell you that if Putin survives this, they have basically signed their own death warrants? At the very least, their social media people will end up somewhere in Siberia if they don’t end up fleeing the country—if Putin survives this. So we take it as this party betting that Putin will not surive.
And as for the non-photoshopped Putin:
In his speech to the nation, Putin claims that anything which divides Russia is a “stab in the back like it was in 1917 when the country was lost and victory in the war thrown away”.
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023
Russia was never even close to win WW1 pic.twitter.com/HNm7IqyBWN
The reference to World War I is interesting. It is certainly true that Russia wasn’t particularly close to winning World War I, but early on in the War, Germany saw them as their greatest danger and were very relieved when the Bolshevik revolution took them out of the war. And indeed, some historians have argued that the revolution was aided by Germany (such as the excellent documentary series ‘The First World War’).
Which brings us to an interesting point. Is the United States behind any of this? There is no question the Biden administration was hoping for coup in Russia to end the war in Ukraine so it’s not illogical to think they may have done something to make it happen. But did they actually do anything to make it happen? We are not sure there is any evidence that they did but there is plenty of speculation:
Here's the view from Fox News: https://t.co/A0d7lYaQGA pic.twitter.com/sm3JNvhXkR
— Ben Smith (@semaforben) June 24, 2023
Mercenaries are paid.
— Sweater Yams (@Sweater_Yams_) June 24, 2023
Pentagon conveniently found $6B dollars three days ago
There are no coincidences
There is no conspiracy. There is a lot of resentment from Wagner and Russians generally due to the costs of the war. They don’t care about this war but are forced to fight it and are losing. Now comes Wagner, only group perceived as having some success, and their leader is openly… https://t.co/5Wuh9xi8Zp
— AG (@AGHamilton29) June 24, 2023
Full text:
There is no conspiracy. There is a lot of resentment from Wagner and Russians generally due to the costs of the war. They don’t care about this war but are forced to fight it and are losing. Now comes Wagner, only group perceived as having some success, and their leader is openly blaming the lies and corruption of the military/defense leadership for what is happening. That makes him a target for that leadership. He’s publicly acknowledging that Russia is losing and it’s costing them up to 1K Russians per day, which they all know but weren’t allowed to acknowledge bc of the news just talks about their imaginary gains and doing so = a prison sentence. So YP likely felt it was him or them at this point so fight for survival and there is far more loyalty to him bc of the success Wagner has had than to these corrupt MoD leaders. So he’s taking his shot and he has a lot of secret support, including in the defense apparatus.
Bottom line: This has little to do with America and there are no good guys here.
— AG (@AGHamilton29) June 24, 2023
SOURCE: The CIA convinced Yevgeny Prigozhin that Putin planned to arrest him. Promising support if Wagner topples Putin, the CIA is actively feeding Prigozhin real-time intel. https://t.co/recfCLCHkp
— @amuse (@amuse) June 24, 2023
We have no idea if that is true. But we will note that we are reluctant to credit Biden himself if America is behind this, because, well…
Military vehicles could cruise through Biden’s bedroom and he wouldn’t notice. https://t.co/SCDtBMjOTn
— Matt Taibbi (@mtaibbi) June 24, 2023
And we would be remiss if we didn’t bring up the possibility that Ukraine did something to make it happen. Even if Prigozhin takes over and turns out to be worse than Putin in the long run, in the short term, if the Russian forces are fighting each other, that can only help Ukraine. However, we have no evidence beyond the simple logic of cui bono—i.e. who benefits?
We also thought this discussion was interesting:
Wagner is making a blitzkrieg run to Moscow to get there before Russian forces can put up significant defenses
— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) June 24, 2023
Do you still think Prigozhin is doomed?
— Kevin Baron (@DefenseBaron) June 24, 2023
It’s getting very interesting. And Putin wasted critical time last night
— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) June 24, 2023
Also, Musk had a recommended source:
Best coverage of the situation I’ve seen so far is from Mario https://t.co/ffTKaPoQ6t
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 24, 2023
The full Tweet he is quoting says this:
COUP UPDATES: Putin Reportedly Leaves Moscow | Machine Gun Positions Around Moscow | Wagner Convoy Heads to Moscow
As the coup continues, here's the latest updates from our various sources live on the ongoing Twitter Space:
- Worries of the Russian Nuclear Warheads moved to Belarus weeks ago
- Wagner forces continue their advance to Moscow with limited strikes by the Russian Air Force
- Reports of Putin and other officials leaving Moscow and heading to Saint Petersburg based on the movement of Military VIP aircrafts. TASS, which is Gov controlled media outlet, reported that Putin is heading to Saint Petersburg, but Putin's Press Secretary refuted those reports. It is very unusual and rare to see such a disconnect between TASS and the Kremlin.
MY THOUGHTS:
- This is a military coup, we can no longer dispute this, and things are moving VERY rapidly and are not looking good for Putin.
- We are seeing limited military clashes, showing likely defections among Russian forces
- Almost EVERYTHING right now can't be verified and should be taken with a grain of salt
(THIS IS AN EVOLVING STORY. UPDATES BELOW IN THREAD)
Mr. Nawfal responded to Musk’s endorsement:
Been awake for over 24 hours, initially hosting former Prime Minister Imran Khan (completely censored by Pakistani media), and now covering the coup in Russia.
— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) June 24, 2023
Mainstream media is being replaced by 24x7 citizen journalism on Twitter, and today is another example of this.
The problem of course is separating wheat from the chaff, but Twitter can certainly give you a lot of raw data from literally all over the world.
For more traditional news coverage, we get this:
“Bakhmut took nearly 11 months, but Prigozihin got to Rostov and Voronezh in less than 11 hours, helped along by commanders and soldiers who appeared to be waiting for him to arrive.” https://t.co/r0GZ5WJ0Jk
— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) June 24, 2023
The piece speculates that Ukraine might have been behind the coup attempt.
🚨 Russian soldiers surrendered en masse to Wagner PMC in Voronezh.
— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) June 24, 2023
Wagner now controls both Rostov (population 1.1 million) and Voronezh (also population 1.1 million). Wagner is now approaching Krasnodar (1 million) and Volgograd (950k) without any resistance. pic.twitter.com/fbcTAEsNrQ
Here are the cities on the map: Wagner controls Rostov and Voronezh, and is reportedly approaching Krasnodar and Volgograd without any resistance. pic.twitter.com/WVkobw7HLR
— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) June 24, 2023
The richest member of the government, Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov, left the country. He flew to Turkey - Russian media pic.twitter.com/SA9eQtTRK5
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) June 24, 2023
And, finally, sadly, we have to talk about Adam Kinzinger:
Why,in the midst of the situation in Russia, is @RepKinzinger thinking about @TuckerCarlson ? pic.twitter.com/1NG2Eo2o9R
— Greta Van Susteren (@greta) June 24, 2023
Yes, for some reason Adam Kinzinger made all of this about Tucker Carlson, Josh Hawley and Trump, because they live rent free in his mind:
Good morning to everyone except those who thought Russia was a stable, strong country with which to model ourselves after. I’m thinking like @HawleyMO and @TuckerCarlson and of course Trump.
— Adam Kinzinger (@AdamKinzinger) June 24, 2023
Many of us knew it would fall apart. Just a bit earlier than most expected.
We don’t recall any of these people saying we should model America after Russia, but sure, Adam, they’re all terribly upset.
The extra weird thing is Kinzinger doesn’t like Wagner:
Never forget that Wagner is a terrorist group. There are no good guys in this fight.
— Adam Kinzinger (@AdamKinzinger) June 24, 2023
BUT we can still realize how great it is for Ukraine
— Adam Kinzinger (@AdamKinzinger) June 24, 2023
Can anyone explain his logic to us? He thinks Wagner is a terrorist organization and he’s cheerleading the idea that they will take over one of the largest nuclear stockpiles in the world?
Assuming they don’t already have some of the nukes:
The Security of Russian Nuclear Weapons @AaronWorthing @PatriarchTree @MsEBL @DaTechGuyblog @PolitiBunny @GrizzlyJoeShow https://t.co/wBjNWpkQ5p
— The WJJ Hoge (@wjjhoge) June 24, 2023
We generally hope Ukraine wins against Russia (though Ukraine is sliding quickly into tyranny itself), but in terms of our interests, we are far from convinced that Prigozhin would be better for us than Putin.
Remember how regime change in Russia was an article of faith among American liberals? Did it ever occur to them that regime change could make Russia *worse*? Well, with the Wagner Group we might get regime change good and hard.
— Mark Hemingway (@Heminator) June 24, 2023
To all the people cheering on the Wagner group… you realize if they manage to take over Russia, they’ll have full control of it’s nuclear arsenal, right?
— Some Welder 🇺🇸 (@SomeWelder) June 24, 2023
You… *do* understand how mercenaries work, right?
I would strongly caution people against celebrating what is happening in Russia. There have been fewer harsher critics of Putin's invasion but chaos is very rarely a good thing.
— Konstantin Kisin (@KonstantinKisin) June 24, 2023
Prigozhin is not the only one with a private army in Russia. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has...
...a large force under his command who have 0 loyalty to Russia or Putin. They hate Wagner but if Putin has to be rescued by them, why not take him out as well as take over the country?
— Konstantin Kisin (@KonstantinKisin) June 24, 2023
Will the national guard fight for Putin?
We don't have answers to any of these questions...
Certainly, the idea of a military loyal to the leader and not at all to the country invokes the history of Rome before it went from a Republic to an Empire run by a dictator-for-life.
...and an armed mutiny in a nuclear nation is a big deal.
— Konstantin Kisin (@KonstantinKisin) June 24, 2023
We don’t know if this person’s analysis is right on all points, but it is much more logical than Kinzinger’s analysis.
***
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