This is a breaking story, so the 24-hour rule applies: All reports within the first 24 hours are suspect. But we will strive to give you the most accurate information.
We’ll start this off with a sarcastic note of caution:
As someone who knows basically nothing about the situation in Russia, I want you to know that, nevertheless, I am still going to tweet about it
— Ben Dreyfuss (@bendreyfuss) June 23, 2023
His (sarcastic) point is valid and this author will be appropriately humble in his ignorance, but something is definitely happening in Russia. And to hear Politico Europe tell it, basically there is a rebellion against the Russian ministry of defense:
Vladimir Putin is facing a major crisis following a declaration of war on Russia’s defense ministry by Wagner Group’s chief Yevgeny Prigozhin.https://t.co/Pco4esiFYj
— POLITICOEurope (@POLITICOEurope) June 23, 2023
And we will be relying to some degree on this article from CNN:
Russia's FSB opened a criminal case into the mercenary leader after he said Russia bombed his men and challenged its justification for the Ukraine war https://t.co/T5oIlwZy43
— CNN Breaking News (@cnnbrk) June 23, 2023
So, for starters, this has to do with Yevgeny Prigozhin, who is described by CNN as “chief of private military group Wagner.” Basically, Wagner is a mercenary corporation, what acronym-lovers (and perhaps fans of ‘Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots’) call a private military company, or PMC. But yeah, basically mercenaries.
The problem allegedly started over battlefield casualties. From the Politico article:
Prigozhin accused Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu of having hidden “colossal” failings on the battlefield from Putin, claiming that 2,000 Wagner men were killed as a result of strikes ordered by the Russian Ministry of Defense.
In response to Prigozhin’s allegations, Moscow issued a strong denial and a procession of generals have lined up to urge Wagner fighters to stand down.
So, because of this, Prigozhin declared war on the Russian defense ministry. We keep seeing claims it is specifically against them, and not the government in general, but we also get this from Politico:
Earlier Friday, the Wagner Group founder questioned Moscow’s rationale for launching its invasion of Ukraine, saying that “the Armed Forces of Ukraine were not going to attack Russia with NATO,” and that “the war was needed for a bunch of scumbags to triumph and show how strong of an army they are.”
In a bombastic video statement he called the Russian military leadership “evil” and vowed to march for “justice,” threatening anyone who stood in his way.
CNN has more on Prigozhin’s allegations, which were apparently on the social media app Telegram:
In a series of Telegram posts on Friday, Prigozhin accused Russian forces of striking a Wagner military camp. “A huge amount of our fighters were killed,” he said, in a radical escalation of a longstanding feud with Russia’s military leaders.
Russia’s Ministry of Defense denied the claims, calling it an “informational provocation.”
The mercenary, who has frequently criticized Russia’s traditional military hierarchy, then warned that retribution would be meted out. “We will deal with those who destroy Russian soldiers and return to the front, justice for the troops will be restored, and then justice for all of Russia,” he said.
He said that his forces would “destroy” any resistance, including roadblocks and aircraft, suggesting the disagreement could turn into warfare.
“There are 25,000 of us and we are going to find out why there is such chaos in the country. There are 25,000 of us waiting as a tactical reserve and a strategic reserve. It’s the whole army and the whole country, everyone who wants to, join us. We must end this debacle,” he said.
In a later Telegram post, Prigozhin said that his criticism of the Russian military leadership was a “march of justice” and not a coup. “This is not a military coup, this is a march of justice. Our actions do not interfere with the troops in any way,” Prigozhin said.
Naturally, the Russian government is treating this as basically open rebellion—which sure as heck is what this sounds like. While CNN says Prigozhin is saying that this is not a coup, there are two reasons to doubt this: 1) it is translated, and 2) he might be full of manure.
Of course, the Biden administration has been hoping someone would topple Putin for a while, but Politico quotes people who express doubts on the subject:
Speaking to POLITICO, Colonel Philip Ingram, a former British military intelligence officer and ex-NATO planner, said that it was “too early to tell” if a coup was underway. “Clearly Moscow is worried and has activated a defense plan — Prigozhin is trying to push something focused on Shoigu, but it could be many things.”
According to Ian Garner, a Russia expert and author of a new book on the fallout of the war in Ukraine, the Wagner chief has overplayed his hand. “Prigozhin has rolled the dice, and now the state is going to do away with him for good,” he said.
“I suspect Prigozhin’s chances of launching a successful coup are slim. The state can offer everything he does — money, freedom, prestige — without him. Why would the Wagner fighters side with Prigozhin in a battle to the death?” Garner said.
One of Ralph Waldo Emerson’s more bad__s quotes holds that “When you strike at a king, you must kill him.” Prigozhin has at least struck at the Moscow government and we shall see how that plays out.
Some other reporting:
Prigozhin has announced that his forces are marching on Moscow, that civilians should stay inside, and that MoD troops should surrender to Wagner.
— Clint Ehrlich (@ClintEhrlich) June 23, 2023
If he's serious, Russia is now in a state of civil war.
🚨The FSB has opened a criminal case against Prigozhin.
— Clint Ehrlich (@ClintEhrlich) June 23, 2023
He is charged with calling for armed rebellion.
This is not theater. It's a real power struggle inside Russia. 🚨
The fact that Wagner relies on the MoD for logistics doesn't mean Wagner can't carry out a coup.
— Clint Ehrlich (@ClintEhrlich) June 23, 2023
It means that a coup requires help from the pro-Wagner faction inside the MoD.
MoD presumably means the Ministry of Defense.
In latest audio message, Prigozhin claims that the majority of the Russian military supports Wagner against Shoigu.
— Clint Ehrlich (@ClintEhrlich) June 23, 2023
He says soldiers are sending him messages of support, saying they'll finally receive the ammunition they need.
New messages from Wagner: "It has begun."
— Clint Ehrlich (@ClintEhrlich) June 23, 2023
"Neither the FSB nor [General] Surovikin can stop what has begun."
"All the generals who, with trembling hands turn to the musicians [Wagner] with calls to stop, have actually already signed their sentences.
— Clint Ehrlich (@ClintEhrlich) June 23, 2023
There will definitely be a tribunal." pic.twitter.com/7Ot4HfYCpD
Wagner is also saying that Surovikin will stand trial for the surrender of Kherson.
— Clint Ehrlich (@ClintEhrlich) June 23, 2023
It's clear he is not part of the attempted coup.
That is bad for Priogzhin, as Surovikin seemed to be his biggest ally in the MoD.
The FSB and Surovikin have both issued statements calling on Wagner forces to take Prigozhin into custody.
— Clint Ehrlich (@ClintEhrlich) June 23, 2023
So has the Deputy Head of the GRU.
They are desperately trying to stop the crisis from turning into a civil war.
Wagner claims Prigozhin has made an offer to the National Guard, "which it's better not to refuse."
— Clint Ehrlich (@ClintEhrlich) June 23, 2023
That fulfillment of "criminal orders" and interfering with the "campaign of justice" by Wagner will end badly for those who make the wrong choice.
(Yes, it's a coup attempt.) pic.twitter.com/CYbEvEQLXO
Wagner: "Once General Shoigu is arrested, then the war [in Ukraine] really starts."
— Clint Ehrlich (@ClintEhrlich) June 23, 2023
If accurate, this doesn't sound like the kind of guy who would overthrow Putin and then make peace with Ukraine.
Russia's Ministry of Defense claims that Ukrainian forces are taking advantage of the chaos caused by Prigozhin.
— Clint Ehrlich (@ClintEhrlich) June 23, 2023
It says they've begun an offensive around Bakhmut, which Russian aerospace forces are attempting to push back.
exactly the situation that the west in the end wanted: a destabilized Russia in a civil war with nationalist circles. But Prigozhin will not be your peace bringer, dear NATO 'strategists'. The nuclear force in the hands of Wagner would be a catastrophe. https://t.co/XSECRcv6OP
— dieudonné95 (@andreas_gnt_2) June 23, 2023
As we said at the beginning, we don’t pretend to know enough about Russia to know the significance of these events at this time. Still, somewhere, Hideo Kojima is either shuddering or smiling.
Video game nerds will know what we mean.
***
Editor's Note: Do you enjoy Twitchy's conservative reporting taking on the radical left and woke media? Support our work so that we can continue to bring you the truth. Join Twitchy VIP and use the promo code SAVEAMERICA to get 40% off your VIP membership!
Join the conversation as a VIP Member