‘There's a graph for that!’ Whenever there’s a public outcry about the economy or crime someone always counters with, ‘My graph shows it’s not really that bad! You don’t know how good you have it!’ So, it’s no surprise with Sunday’s horrifying video of a young woman dying in flames in a New York City subway car, there would be the usual graphlighting (graphs + gaslighting). Nate Silver appears to fall on the graph side. But, posters were quick to tell him there’s a lot of factors not reflected in the crime numbers.
Here’s more. (WATCH)
NYC has a considerably lower crime rate than most large American cities. It's also a city of 8+ million where lots of crazy sh$$ happens on a daily basis. I don't blame anyone for being concerned but it's sort of a test for whether you think in terms of narratives or base rates.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) December 23, 2024
A drastic drop in small crimes (like muggings, for example) can skew the numbers of much serious crimes like assault and murder. Overall crime may indeed be down, but that’s little comfort when the number of people being stabbed or gunned down in the street is way up.
Posters make their case.
Does it matter much that the overall crime rate is down if the murder rate is up over 60%. Being mugged it bad, murdered worse. https://t.co/vsFVhrQjgL
— Greg Roberts (@gurgun2024) December 23, 2024
Isn’t murder on the subway up over previous years?
— EducatëdHillbilly™ (@RobProvince) December 23, 2024
That city is a dumpster fire, it’s wild to pretend otherwise.
— Kyle 🦎 (@TheMckenzieK) December 23, 2024
People hate to have their genuine concerns ignored or dismissed, especially when they’re seeing crime in person and on TV.
Telling people that the reality they see and feel is not real because of “the science” or some leftist academic “studies” is a guaranteed political loser that drives people away from progressivism.
— Daniel Aldridge (@daaldridge) December 23, 2024
Homelessness and the mentally ill (they often intersect) is the biggest driver of this feeling. It may be true that crime is down statistically but it’s going to be difficult to convince people that they’re safe if everywhere they walk has people sleeping in tents and doing drugs
— Internet Pundit (@punditocratic) December 23, 2024
Also not reflected in graphs and numbers is changes in the quality of life brought on by the drastic transformation of one’s environment. Seeing shambling homeless people and drug users passed out on previously clean, tranquil streets brings crime and ignites fear.
That’s what many commenters are saying.
I mean there are more crazy homeless people than ever before on the subway, plus now the illegal immigrant mother who’s selling gum or candy with a toddler strapped to her back. Now that’s not “crime” but this is what people are tired of seeing and dealing with. Now I assume…
— Alex (@Brazil201) December 23, 2024
I've lived in NYC since 2007...I don't think NYC since 2020 feels as "safe" as it did during Bloomberg. Everything wasn't locked behind partitions 5 years ago and midtown hotels weren't mini slums. The scaffolding has gotten worse...there is an issue with not enforcing the small…
— CanLen 🕙 (@CandiceLen) December 23, 2024
If cops are looking the other way on “small stuff” and hence excluding from reported stats, it’s not apples to apples. It’s why public perception of safety is different from reported stats perhaps.
— Bhu (@insearchofhumor) December 23, 2024
If you’re burning alive on the subway, or being shot in the back on your way to an investor meeting, then you might sense the disorder.
— Danimal 320 (@danimal320) December 23, 2024
As mentioned, you have to add ‘crime fatigue’ into the mix as well, That’s where people no longer report certain crimes because it’s a waste of their time since they know police will do nothing. So, when people are telling you crime is getting worse, that they fear for their safety, and they’ve witnessed people gunned down or burned alive on their subways, don’t graphlight them and tell them it’s all in their imagination. The numbers aren’t the whole story.
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