15 states track monthly data on voter registration by party. In those states since 7/1, 34% of new voters are Dems, 20% GOP, 46% other.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 30, 2012
Since 2008, the Dem share of voter registrations is down slightly. But all gains among independents/others, not GOP.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 30, 2012
And in last couple of months, Dem registrations are mediocre, but GOP numbers worse. Both parties losing ground to indies.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 30, 2012
Nate Silver is the well-known FiveThirtyEight blogger who got his start at Daily Kos.
Some Twitter users believe this news might benefit GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney:
https://twitter.com/KatieNewCanaan/status/252509928214913024
@fivethirtyeight Didn't Independents vote +19% in favor of Republicans in 2010?
— Diana Lazarian ❌ (@DianaLazarian) September 30, 2012
@fivethirtyeight Isn't also true that independents lean Romney and more conservative/libertarians are calling themselves independents?
— Mama Grizzly ?? (@MIRightEye) September 30, 2012
https://twitter.com/Weird_T_Figure/status/252512061207244801
A series of polls of likely voters conducted by Quinnipiac University, The New York Times and CBS News show Romney narrowly ahead of President Barack Obama among Independents in Florida and Ohio. The two candidates are tied among Independent likely voters in Pennsylvania, and Romney is well ahead in Virginia and Wisconsin.
If pollsters are not taking into account the surge in Independents — in other words, if their samples underweight the number of Independents in the electorate — their polling results would understate support for Romney.
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