Yesterday, Twitchy noted a biased Washington Post poll that appeared to have too many Democrats in its sample. The sample in that poll was 32D/24R/35I, or D+8.
By comparison, the 2008 Virginia exit poll sample, taken when hope-and-change euphoria was at its peak, was 39D/33R/27I, or D+6.
We thought that was a pretty skewed sample, and said so: “The Washington Post poll presumes a political environment in Virginia that is more hospitable to Democrats today than in 2008.”
But today’s poll of Virginian likely voters from the New York Times, CBS and Quinnipiac University is even worse. The poll shows President Barack Obama leading GOP nominee by 4 points, 50-46. But take a look at the sample: 35D/24R/36I, or D+11.
Many Twitter users believe, as we do, that such a Democrat-heavy sample is a poor proxy for voters in the state as a whole:
The CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac has + 11 dems in VA.. This is ludicrous
— Jennifer Rubin (@JRubinBlogger) September 19, 2012
https://twitter.com/noah_c_rothman/status/248392631577616384
@chelyendavis The problem with this poll is the sample. Nobody can possibly believe D+11 party ID in VA. It's a transparently bad poll.
— Philippian Jailer (@jailer) September 19, 2012
NYT Q poll of Virginia. D+11. Really? Seriously?
— John Podhoretz (@jpodhoretz) September 19, 2012
Laughable: CBS VA poll is D+11 (!!) Was R+4 in 2009. Amazingly, Obama "up" only 4. Same poll has GOP enthusiasm +20. That D+11 doesn't fly
— Marcus (@MarcusHUSA) September 19, 2012
https://twitter.com/DefendoLibertas/status/248381674826633216
@QuinnipiacPoll please explain the +11 D sample in VA. The poll is suspect with that type of sample.
— TxSker (@TxSker) September 19, 2012
As several Twitter users noted yesterday, there seem to be at least as many Republicans in Virginia as Democrats:
https://twitter.com/FixAaron/statuses/248109831511216128
The Washington Post Virginia Poll that the left is creaming themselves over is a D+9 sample. More shenanigans.
— RBe (@RBPundit) September 18, 2012
Granted, Virginia’s economy is relatively strong — a factor that may be helping Obama there — but the notion that Democrats will turn out to vote in greater numbers than they did four years ago defies belief.
The Virginia poll is not the only questionable poll being reported this morning. NYT / CBS / Quinnipiac also is reporting a 6-point lead for Obama in Wisconsin. The sample in that poll: 35D/27R/32I, or D+8.
By comparison, the 2008 Wisconsin exit poll sample was 39D/33R/29I, or D+6.
And the exit poll sample in the 2012 recall election was 34D/35R/31I, or R+1.
Draw your own conclusion.
Tellingly, the NYT / CBS / Quinnipiac polls show Romney beating Obama handily among Independents in both Virginia and Wisconsin. That, it seems to us, is a much more significant finding than the headline numbers.
Related:
Rasmussen New Hampshire poll: Romney 48, Obama 45
Misleading WaPo poll falsely asserts Obama is up by 8 in Virginia
Gallup: Obama’s post-convention bounce is gone
Rasmussen Colorado poll: Romney 47, Obama 45
Shhh! Top-secret Rasmussen poll shows Romney still up by 2
Ezra Klein: ‘If you look at the numbers, the Romney campaign is in serious trouble’
Erick Erickson says Romney is losing; Rasmussen begs to differ
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