When the guilty party refuses to hold themselves to account, we can always count on Drew Holden to do it for them.
Death, taxes and a Drew Holden thread. https://t.co/w8CrSxovZo
— OlúAfolábí (@oluafolabi) August 17, 2021
So when Joe Biden and members of his administration stand (or sit) there and tell us with straight faces that their approach to Afghanistan was the correct one even in the face of clear evidence to the contrary, Holden right there waiting with all the receipts.
🧵THREAD🧵
I don’t know the right answer to what’s going on in Afghanistan.
But I do know that nearly everything the Biden Administration has said about it for the last few months has been wrong or a promise unkept.
I revisit what was said and predicted.⤵️
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 17, 2021
Strap in, because this is one hell of a ride:
First, important framing. We’ve known that the rebuild of Afghanistan has been a failure and a fraud for years.
If you haven’t yet, I encourage you to read The Afghanistan Papers from @washingtonpost, which unpacks the depth of the deception: https://t.co/Sv8FtuFo0q
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 17, 2021
Despite that, President Biden plowed ahead with his withdrawal plans.
He was confident enough that, just last month, he rejected comparisons to Saigon because “the Taliban is not the North Vietnamese Army.”
That might be fair. They proved far more capable. pic.twitter.com/ruLvVUpSrv
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 17, 2021
Again, just last month, Biden said “the likelihood there’s going to be the Taliban overrunning everything and owning the whole country is highly unlikely.”
One month later, the Taliban had done just that. pic.twitter.com/woW4PotCev
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 17, 2021
Recommended
If today’s speech from Biden sounded familiar, it’s because it was largely lifted from his speech in April announcing the drawdown.
One line that didn’t make it in this time? The Afghan military will “continue to fight valiantly…at great cost.” pic.twitter.com/8z6V1q4Jd2
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 17, 2021
Because Joe Biden is pathetic.
One of the most consistently wrong people is Antony Blinken, Biden’s Secretary of State.
He said of the withdrawal: “as the United States begins withdrawing our troops, we will use our civilian and economic assistance to advance a just and durable peace for Afghanistan.” pic.twitter.com/vKK17601fc
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 17, 2021
In April, while visiting Afghanistan, Blinken told Afghan President Ashraf Gandhi – who has since fled the country – that Blinken was there to “demonstrate literally, by our presence, that we have an enduring and ongoing commitment to Afghanistan.” pic.twitter.com/wdFSBRaxxG
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 17, 2021
I’m…not sure that one came to pass.
But perhaps Blinken’s worst prediction was from June where he said the US withdrawal wouldn’t lead to “some kind of immediate deterioration in the situation” that could happen “from a Friday to a Monday.”
It took, what, a week and a half? pic.twitter.com/WAIIvkp0lD
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 17, 2021
There were a lot of bad predictions about the Taliban.
In April, US Envoy to Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad told lawmakers that the new Taliban would behave better because “international recognition” would prove an incentive.
Doesn’t look like it. pic.twitter.com/bKDkojdukm
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 17, 2021
The generals, as ever, were also wrong. Speaking to the Senate in June, SecDef Lloyd Austin and Gen Mark Milley said there was a “medium” risk that the Taliban would have the capability to retake Afghanistan and it would take two years.
It took them two weeks. pic.twitter.com/tK3qtKjJOB
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 17, 2021
Milley at that same testimony said that “I don’t see Saigon 1975 in Afghanistan. The Taliban just aren’t the North Vietnamese Army. It’s not that kind of situation.”
It was, in fact, precisely that type of situation, just worse and faster. pic.twitter.com/uBlqNsmCpS
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 17, 2021
This particular piece from NY Times was just a goldmine of bad information. https://t.co/4hGANEYiY6
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 17, 2021
Here we’ve got nameless “U.S. officials” endorsing the theory that the Taliban – yes, that Taliban – would be concerned about being an international pariah because their leaders “have a record of seeking international credibility.” pic.twitter.com/u8RT13mpH8
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 17, 2021
"…experts also believe that Taliban leaders have moderated in recent years, recognizing that Afghanistan’s cities have modernized, and note that the group’s peace negotiators have traveled internationally, seeing the outside world in a way its founders rarely…did." NYT, 4/23 pic.twitter.com/9IQscYVxfw
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 17, 2021
Speaking of generals, here’s Joseph Dunford endorsing the international respect theory that this Afghanistan would “temper its violence” because…well, who knows. pic.twitter.com/ym6vcBUi9n
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 17, 2021
Just amazing. pic.twitter.com/sG8iil7xzY
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 17, 2021
As has been the case for the last twenty years, our intel has simply been wrong.
We thought we had months, even worst-case scenario.
We really only had weeks. pic.twitter.com/0yf4DzRLK2
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 17, 2021
I’ve said this on here repeatedly but I really don’t think that Biden will face serious political consequences from this devastating situation.
But every prediction and promise he and his team have made have been disastrously wrong on Afghanistan.
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 17, 2021
We can’t know now how this will ultimately affect Joe Biden’s presidency, but there’s no doubt in our minds that, in a just world, he deserves to be held accountable for what he’s done.
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