During this Christmas season, most families will rewatch 'Home Alone'. Surely, one has to suspend quite a bit of belief to think this story could actually happen. One man took it even farther and did the math.
After rewatching Home Alone, I couldn’t stop wondering:
— Luis Batalha (@luismbat) December 24, 2025
how plausible is the oversleep that leaves Kevin behind?
So I wrote a tiny paper and ran the numbers.
Merry Christmas! 🎄 pic.twitter.com/jhtrVe1AuT
He found it was quite possible for all of the adults to sleep past 8:00 am.
#facts The missus and I made this exact comment when we watched Home Alone this year: “No way all those kids and all those adults overslept. You know somebody is an early morning cartoon kid.” https://t.co/gumaHdhinw
— Benjamin Dougherty (@BenDougherty) December 24, 2025
Look what you can do with a career in STEM kids https://t.co/OE0uNohA0T
— mtthwhgn (@mtthwhgn) December 24, 2025
Look what you can do with all of your free will and adult math skills. Don't ever let anyone say you won't use Statistics after college.
I’m going to level with you: anything set using LaTeX (the “science paper” typesetting tool) looks 50% more credible to me. https://t.co/xPgWFuOgkA
— Ryan Cousineau (@rcousine) December 24, 2025
The chance of all the McCallisters oversleeping their alarm is 0.13%, or 1 in 750https://t.co/0UthaU1Yd2 https://t.co/qy7PZKFqg1
— Joe Bishop-Henchman 🗽💸⚖️🚆 (@jbhenchman) December 24, 2025
Recommended
For those who didn't want to read the whole thing.
Post inspired me to create a Die Hard variant… perfect for 🎄
— Marc Lien (@marclien) December 24, 2025
This is a mini “applied probability” paper: model the whole plot as a random total time T (movement + fights + improvisation + comms), approximate T as Gaussian, then compute the tail probability that McClane can… https://t.co/xdlwNEjXRc pic.twitter.com/HlOjy37WHZ
Die Hard is a Christmas movie.
Loving this - perfect material for stats / probability theory class! Though I doubt the sleep time is a normal distribution (I think perhaps a Beta distribution), and the lack of codependency makes a naive model (obviously if a single adult would wake they would alert the others) https://t.co/2ztFragQE5
— Roy Shilkrot (@RoyShilkrot) December 24, 2025
Nerd alert. Heh.
This is the perfect Christmas present Mr. Batalha. This wins the internet for the season with me good sir.
— Straight Lines (@econometricks) December 24, 2025
Liked and followed.
Merry Christmas everyone! https://t.co/cq34yLeGcW
Good conversation starter for Christmas morning.
The real research the world needs. https://t.co/Y7Kn8vhtrJ
— Thryve | Stress & Wellness (@ReallyThryve) December 24, 2025
After rewatching it this year, i come to a new conclusion: Kevin shouldve beat Fuller senseless for not waking him up. https://t.co/uhpwPTvETg
— Regular Everyday Normal Guy (@DiaIUpModem) December 24, 2025
That's fair.
Maths should be this fun for all to enjoy🔥 https://t.co/3J7tgh6uc0
— President Elect (@tumelokh) December 24, 2025
Your analysis leaves out an obvious factor that is likely given the loud activity at home but not depicted given the rating of the movie in question, a likelihood only enhanced by the uncle's avid pursuit of hair of the dog the next morning:
— Benjamin Domenech (@bdomenech) December 24, 2025
The parents were all drunk. https://t.co/eK00ek3vTW
Of course, there is an alternative explanation.
This might be one of the greatest things I’ve ever seen on social media. #Science https://t.co/tRBX0IljaO
— Cody Matz (@CodyMatzFox9) December 24, 2025
It's most definitely a welcome change.
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