Allan Lichtman is a professor with a specific claim to fame. He says he can accurately predict who will win the Presidency and has the last 9 out of 10 times (there is some dispute about this). Lichtman predicts Kamala Harris will win this election according to his formula. Nate Silver doesn't believe Lichtman is properly applying his own formula and let him know so today.
The funny thing is if you actually apply his keys correctly based on how he's applied them in the past, they predict a Trump victory. More about this soon lol. https://t.co/9WJprODwD6
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 27, 2024
If you combine unpopular current administration with retrospectively popular past administration then yes, you get an environment where Trump should win.
— Chris (@chriswithans) September 27, 2024
And then you see that Trump's once again polling well in the sunbelt and now with top-rated national polls and you start to…
Apparently Silver isn't alone in his assessment.
The historian who does the 13 magic keys keeps pretending like he is top number 1 pundit who gets everything right but he claimed Biden was fling to win and guess what Biden didn’t win he actually dropped out. I think the key master should sit the rest of the election out.
— Ben Dreyfuss (@bendreyfuss) September 27, 2024
Yeah, Lichtman has gotten 2 out of his past 3 calls wrong. In 2016, he predicted Trump would win the *popular* vote and said nothing about the Electoral College. And this year, he predicted Biden would win. Dude is 1 for his last 3, losing his fastball I guess. https://t.co/9tAOmhDA7w
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 27, 2024
So, he actually has not been always as right as he claims.
I've spent way too much time on this and have a lot of receipts from how you've applied your keys in the past! At least 7 of the keys, maybe 8, clearly favor Trump. Sorry brother, but that's what the keys say. Unless you're admitting they're totally arbitrary? https://t.co/9QqlRUCaqt
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 27, 2024
It's possible Lichtman doesn't want to admit it's very likely Trump will win.
I hate Nate's average of polls where he doesn't segment polls by the methods used to gather the data. But here he is right. Lichtman refused to follow his own methodology and is putting his thumb on the scale to deny that Trump wins the model and the election. https://t.co/RN6gnnOd8w
— mngander (@mngander92) September 27, 2024
It’s hilarious you say this Nate, because after hearing all the stuff about him picking Kamala I decided to humor myself and read “the keys” and frankly I couldn’t even figure out how to apply them, but when I tried the majority basically favored Trump 😂😂 https://t.co/OtVtv6JcA8
— Chasing Ring #28 (@vanillavick96) September 27, 2024
Even the amateurs are finding the holes in Lichtman's logic.
About time someone called out this Lichtman fraud. I just wasn’t expecting it to be Nate Silver. https://t.co/Q52RKnaWMY
— New Jersey Jew (@newjerseyjew) September 27, 2024
I've been waiting for this thread and I made the same points when Lichtman made his prediction a few months ago.
— Anna Hoffman (@shoesonplease) September 27, 2024
The "keys" don't apply in this unusual situation - both could be considered "incumbents." https://t.co/q1cKvIKqyf
This election is like no other and the conventional wisdom likely won't apply.
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