Polls and Pollsters are not totally always right in their prognostications, but Nate Silver, a renowned pollster, suggested today he has some MAJOR reservations about Biden winning in 2024.
Nate Silver is doubtful that Biden will win in Nov. 2024 and thinks that Democrats should nominate someone else if they want to win. https://t.co/40FxkeJoXB
— Benjamin Ryan (@benryanwriter) November 13, 2023
It started out with Benjamin Ryan, a Health and Science Reporter, sharing Nate's tweet with his own commentary.
I wouldn't quite say that. I think Biden has IDK a 50% chance of beating Trump or maybe a little north of there. Trump isn't popular. But I wonder whether another Democrat would be 60%, 70%, 75%, etc. https://t.co/TCDkrBjsTh
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 13, 2023
Nate then clarified the tweet a bit. Of course, he is not saying Biden won't win. He is saying, however, the chances have decreased dramatically if polls are to be believed.
This is just not true.
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) November 13, 2023
A big part of the initial @NateSilver538 rise was him just saying over and over again “actually the polls show Obama winning” while the old-school journos insisted that the vibes were against him. https://t.co/zQuDEBnqgn
Then, Matt Yglesias reminded readers Nate was one of the first pollsters to realize Obama had a really great shot of winning way back when.
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It's because some people literally can't imagine doing political analysis because you want to be right or accurate or informative instead of rooting for a particular team. There are probably nicer ways to put it but that's the bottom line.https://t.co/YdThSHjNMJ https://t.co/OWGR8TrTLw
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 14, 2023
Unfortunately, most pollsters do have their thumb on the scale a bit with innate bias. That's why it's best to look at a bunch of polls and take some averages.
I'm trying to diagnose who has the best chance of winning, which is (part of) my job. If you think the stakes are high, then that's all the more reason to nominate the person with the best shot of winning. I'm increasingly doubtful that's Biden. https://t.co/vTCyZegLxg
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 13, 2023
Professional crybaby Aaron Rupar was very upset about Nate's thoughts on Biden's chances.
You can complain until you're blue in that it's bothsides to complain about Biden's age but 1) a huge % of voters disagree; 2) it's a completely rational concern; 3) it's a *substantive* concern—the Politico article says it's affecting his performance.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 13, 2023
https://t.co/6x5v29kaEx
The other issue is that "well, the other guy is worse" is actually a non-sequitur response to the question "why'd you nominate a guy who was 81 years old?". At least Republicans can say "sorry, our voters picked Trump". But Democrats haven't had a competitive nomination process.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 13, 2023
This is a very good point. Republicans are having a primary and other candidates have chances to beat Trump. It may not happen, but there is the opportunity. Biden hasn't been forced to face any challenge and is being dumped on Democrats again. Time will tell how the American public reacts.
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