Other than Rasmussen, recent Ohio polls show a narrow lead for President Barack Obama over GOP rival Mitt Romney. Most recently, a D+1 poll (a reasonable sample) showed Obama with a 2-point lead:
Ohio Poll has a 2 pt race in OH, 48-46. Has turnout at 45D/44R/11I. I wish they hadn't leaned indies so we could see how that fleshes out.
— Josh Jordan (@NumbersMuncher) October 31, 2012
The auto bailout is a big issue in the Buckeye State, and it appears to be taking its toll on Romney among Blue Collar automotive workers who evidently prefer corporate welfare to free markets.
Obviously, it is premature to count Romney out, but these poll results are not encouraging.
Romney appears to be making big gains in other swing states such as Florida and Virginia. The relative lack of progress in Ohio has some Twitter users buzzing about whether it might be possible for Romney to win next week’s election without Ohio.
https://twitter.com/fpmora/status/263678600484634624
Election slated to be a big surprise- consensus says Romney will win with or without Ohio- Interesting!
— Donna Sceviour (@sceeziac) October 31, 2012
https://twitter.com/MyNamesBOLD/status/263646472485093376
https://twitter.com/WatchdogOrgVA/status/263612305948954624
https://twitter.com/carldavid66/status/263431562366959618
We believe it is possible, albeit difficult. Our reading of the polls is that Romney has excellent prospects in North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, and Iowa.
Haa… PPP(D) poll of NC is tied. Sample is D+12. Was D+11 in 08, R+1 in 04. This poll is more telling of PPP's OH/IA/WI polls as well.
— Josh Jordan (@NumbersMuncher) October 31, 2012
Rasmussen polled Colorado on Monday and found Romney up 3, 50-47. Due to hurricane no crosstabs though.
— Josh Jordan (@NumbersMuncher) October 31, 2012
New Roanoke poll has Romney up 5 in VA. Romney up 26 among independents. Sample is D+4 (was D+6 in 08, R+4 in 04) http://t.co/6QGTiGIQ
— Josh Jordan (@NumbersMuncher) October 31, 2012
CBS/Q poll of FL has Obama up 1, down from O+9 last month. Reps 16% more enthusiastic. R up 5 w/ indies. Sample is D+7 (was D+3 in 2008!)
— Josh Jordan (@NumbersMuncher) October 31, 2012
If Romney sweeps all five of those states — and we believe he has a good shot of doing so — plus all of the “safe” Romney-leaning states, he will have 263 electoral votes.
President Obama needs 270 electoral votes to win. By contrast, Romney needs only 269. That’s because in the event of a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College, the winner is selected by the U.S. House of Representatives. Each state gets one vote, and the House currently has more state congressional delegations with a majority of Republicans than a majority of Democrats.
Assuming Romney prevails in North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, and Iowa (the five swing states mentioned above), he can get to 269 or more electoral votes by winning Nevada (6 electoral votes), Wisconsin (10 electoral votes), Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) and/or Michigan (16 electoral votes). He also has a good shot in New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) and in Maine’s 2nd congressional district (1 electoral vote), but those won’t get him to 269.
If Romney loses Ohio, we think his best path to victory lies in Nevada. True, the polls show a narrow lead there for Obama, but some of these polls have samples that are slanted to a ridiculous extent toward Democrats. For example, a recent poll by Gravis Marketing showing a 1-point lead for Obama had a D+9 sample. By comparison, exit polls showed a D+8 tilt in 2008, when Obama-mania was at its peak. Does anyone really believe that more Democrats will show up next week than in 2008?
The same Gravis poll showed an enormous 35-point lead(!) for Romney among Independents:
Gravis NV poll has Obama up 1, 50-49. Romney up 35 w/ indys. Sample is D+9 (was D+8 in 08, D+2 in 2010).
— Josh Jordan (@NumbersMuncher) October 26, 2012
Polls like this one are encouraging. If Romney is carrying Nevada’s Independent voters by even half the margin seen in the Gravis poll, he will almost certainly carry the state. Which means he can get to 269 electoral votes with or without Ohio.
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