"In 2010, 2014, and 2022, Dems insisted special election wins by the GOP in state legislative races, flipping D seats, had no bearing on the midterm election," tweets Erick Erickson. "In 2018, the GOP did the same. In all cases, the incumbent White House party wound up getting brutalized by voters."
In 2010, 2014, and 2022, Dems insisted special election wins by the GOP in state legislative races, flipping D seats, had no bearing on the midterm election. In 2018, the GOP did the same. In all cases, the incumbent White House party wound up getting brutalized by voters.
— Erick Erickson (@EWErickson) February 1, 2026
Electoral politics trends are hard to boil down to an exact science. Midterm elections have, in recent times, been viewed as a referendum on the party in power and the party occupying the White House. Perhaps that party, whichever it may be at a certain time, begins to defend too much against anything going wrong and does not implement a forward-moving strategy. Perhaps candidates who are not the best are weighed down by a president losing popularity. Perhaps voters want changes a lot of the time. Perhaps the people want to send a message to the president, generally speaking. There may be a number of reasons for it.
This anecdote, helpfully shared by Erickson, is a great example of why it is hard to run in power and why it is a lot simpler to slam away as opposition.
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