Fox News published poll numbers on Sunday showing former President Donald Trump leading other Republican presidential nomination candidates by more than 55 percent. A tweet by Byron York details some of the headline information contained in the Fox News poll.
New Fox News national GOP poll: Trump 69 DeSantis 12 Haley 9. General election: Trump 50 Biden 46; DeSantis 47 Biden 47; Haley 49 Biden 43. https://t.co/3nTtFuRskM
— Byron York (@ByronYork) December 17, 2023
A graphic in a tweet by Fox News Sunday illustrates the statistical increase of former President Trump and statistical decreases of other candidates in the Republican presidential nomination polling conducted by Fox News.
NEW FOX News Poll: Former President Donald Trump gains ground in the Republican presidential nomination contest. #FoxNewsSundayhttps://t.co/TZhnsl30ac pic.twitter.com/LWTizJh8PT
— Fox News Sunday (@FoxNewsSunday) December 17, 2023
Another graphic in a Fox News Sunday tweet illustrates the just-released poll's results of the three highest-polling Republicans hypothetically matched up head-to-head against President Joe Biden in a general election.
NEW FOX News Poll: Hypothetical general election matchups against President Joe Biden. #FoxNewsSunday https://t.co/TZhnsl30ac pic.twitter.com/oABZ6BnbfR
— Fox News Sunday (@FoxNewsSunday) December 17, 2023
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It must be pointed out that this is a poll, and polls in general should be digested with more than a healthy amount of skepticism. As it pertains to hypothetical general election matchups, it must be pointed out that there are a lot of days, weeks, and months between when this poll was published and Election Day in 2024. Beyond the time, many events that could and, in some cases, will significantly impact the election (such as primary votes, debates, important speeches, conventions, and so on) have yet to occur.
The polls frame the Republican primary as Trump's to lose. The former president is being polled with a margin of about 50 or more percent clear of other Republican candidates. Republican primary voting begins in roughly a month, so the polls that are being published now and will be published in the coming weeks are the polls that frame the GOP nomination contest as it begins. In addition to the fact that former President Donald Trump seems to hold a sizeable lead, widening according to Fox News polling, there seems to be no clearly defined alternative candidate. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 12 percent in the poll is leading the group of other candidates, but he trails former President Trump by 57 percent in the Fox News poll and by only 3 percentage points leads the third-polling Republican candidate, former South Carolina Gov. and UN ambassador Nikki Haley.
Something that makes this electoral go-round unique is that Trump is running as a non-incumbent to be elected president a second time. It has been more than a century since there was a general election candidacy comparable to the potential of former President Donald Trump. Therefore, it is more than reasonable to presume that former President Trump has an electoral advantage that most who have been nominated in opposition to an incumbent president have not shared.
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