A tweet published by Rasmussen Reports shows former President Donald Trump leading Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis by 50 percentage points among Republicans polled about which candidate they would vote for in the GOP presidential primary if it were held today.
If the Republican presidential primary were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for?
— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) November 12, 2023
GOP Only-
Trump: 63%
DeSantis: 13%
Haley: 9%
Christe: 4%
Ramaswamy: 3%
Pence: 2%
Scott: 1%
Hutchinson: 0%
Burgum: 1%
Not Sure: 5% https://t.co/KZtu6oKyLM
This comes after the third Republican presidential debate of the 2024 primary season, in none of which has former President Trump participated.
This poll result indicates that, as of roughly two months before electoral decisions begin, there would be little challenge to Trump being the Republican nominee. Gov. DeSantis is the default answer to what candidate is the challenger because he is polling second. But this poll shows Trump with nearly five times the support of DeSantis, who is only four points ahead of the third-listed GOP candidate, former South Carolina Gov. and UN ambassador Nikki Haley. Thus, Trump seems to be lapping the Republican primary field.
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It is important to consider the wording of the poll question, "If the Republican presidential primary were held today." Obviously, the Republican presidential primary is not being held today. The wording is important because it is different from a question along the lines of, "Which candidate are you planning to vote for in the upcoming Republican presidential primary?" Still, the overwhelming support of former President Trump in the poll result cannot be diminished when projecting it onto actual primary voting. If sentiment among Republican voters is to shift between now and when votes are counted, it will have to do so dramatically, as indicated by this poll, to threaten Trump's nomination chances.
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