Larry Kudlow, the director of the National Economic Council for President Donald Trump’s White House, told NBC’s Chuck Todd on Sunday that despite fears from some economists, he does not see a recession on the horizon for the U.S. economy.
To back up his point, Kudlow pointed to retail sales consumer numbers toward the end of this past week, which he calls “blockbuster.” He also said that most economists shifted their forecasts for the third and fourth quarters up toward the end of the week.
Kudlow: "I sure don't see a recession. … Let's not be afraid of optimism." pic.twitter.com/Is8EJVIPwN
— Meet the Press (@MeetThePress) August 18, 2019
More from Kudlow:
“Consumers are working at higher wages. They are spending at a rapid pace. They’re also saving while they’re spending; that’s an ideal situation, so I think actually the second half of the economy’s going to be very good in 2019. No I don’t see a recession.”
“Let me add just one theme … we’re doing pretty darn well in my judgment. Let’s not be afraid of optimism.”
Some counter that Kudlow got it wrong ahead of the 2007-08 recession.
uh oh https://t.co/5TKutna98n
— Igor Bobic (@igorbobic) August 18, 2019
Larry Kudlow, Dec. 2007:
“Despite all the doom and gloom from the economic pessimistas, the resilient U.S. economy continues moving ahead.”
“There’s no recession coming.” https://t.co/i4PCcfSz0F
— Aaron Blake (@AaronBlake) August 18, 2019
Kudlow admits that he got it wrong then but says “this is not then.”
Chuck Todd reads Larry Kudlow his own quote from December 2007:
"There's no recession coming. The pessimistas were wrong. It's not going to happen. … The Bush boom is alive and well. It's finishing up its sixth consecutive year with more to come." pic.twitter.com/Q9Y3J0ebNz
— Axios (@axios) August 18, 2019
Much has been made about the inversion of the Treasure yield curve (for the first time in 12 years), but historical data shows that it is not always a guarantee that a recession is imminent.
Fact: Every U.S. recession since the 1960s was preceded by a year or so by an inversion of the Treasury yield curve.
— Bloomberg (@business) August 18, 2019
Another White House adviser, Peter Navarro, says we technically did not have an inversion but a “flat curve,” adding that it indicates economic strength.
White House Trade Adviser Peter Navarro: "Technically we did not have a yield curve inversion…In this case the flat curve is the result of a very strong Trump economy." https://t.co/EhdddemTTM pic.twitter.com/pQ6muveWpa
— The Hill (@thehill) August 18, 2019
We shall see…