Democratic pundits are eager to tell you that the outcome of the 2018 midterm elections is an indication that they are going to do exceedingly well in the 2020 presidential election.
They point to the “popular vote” (there is no such thing in a midterm election) as a sign that states that flipped red in 2016 are about to flip right back to blue.
If the 2020 Electoral College matches the 2018 House popular vote, it will look like this pic.twitter.com/jJpnPKftqf
— Bill Scher (@billscher) November 25, 2018
But if that were the case, then the 2010 midterm elections would have been an accurate predictor for how then President Obama was going to fare in his bid for reelection in 2012.
Now here's the funny thing…run that map except for the House popular vote in 2010, and predict which party wins the 2012 election. https://t.co/zmBlCXB569
— Jeff B. (@EsotericCD) November 25, 2018
How would those 2010 results have projected?
Here's what it looks like when you apply the 2010 Congressional popular vote to the Electoral Collegehttps://t.co/ycwY5CpXxn pic.twitter.com/OSsnph8Ezk
— Chris Ladd (@ChrisALadd) November 25, 2018
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It means Mitt Romney would have beaten Obama by carrying all the states that Trump carried with the addition of Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Virginia, which would have been a landslide.
Clearly, that did not happen in 2012, given that it was Obama who won 332 electoral votes, crushing Romney, who earned only 206.
To be clear, I have a hard time seeing how Trump secures reelection in 2020. But I know I have an immense amount of personal bias built in, and the lessons of recent history to add to that as well.
— Jeff B. (@EsotericCD) November 25, 2018
Trump may lose by a decisive margin in 2020, but it will have little if anything to do with the voting outcome in the 2018 midterm elections.
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