Data journo Nate Silver released his first forecast of the 2022 House and Senate midterm elections, and as you may have suspected, it’s not good news for Dems:
NEW: Republicans are favored to win the House in November, while the Senate is a toss-up, according to FiveThirtyEight’s latest 2022 election forecast. https://t.co/h6tmYrhuom
— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) June 30, 2022
As of today, 538’s model finds Republicans with an 87% chance of winning the House and a 53% chance of taking over the Senate:
Republicans have an 87% chance to win the House but only a 53% chance to win the Senate, according to the Deluxe version of the FiveThirtyEight forecast, which is now live: https://t.co/KuyTyF7P8u
— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) June 30, 2022
We’ll take these odds:
Our forecast is out! Republicans are heavy favorites to win the House, but the Senate is a toss-up. https://t.co/0uJ8ZXlWSq pic.twitter.com/i2yrMQA6ls
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 30, 2022
But we don’t know if the “crazy GOP nominee strategy” will actually translate into Dems wins:
And here's my overview. Basically: the political environment is quite bad for Dems, but the GOP has enough bad candidates (inexperienced, scandal-plagued, 1/6 endorser, views outside mainstream) to keep D hopes alive in the Senate & some key gov races. https://t.co/8pXjNo4s5c
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 30, 2022
Nate writes:
The split diagnosis reflects the difference between macro- and micro-level conditions. The national environment is quite poor for Democrats. Of course, this is typical for the president’s party, which has lost seats in the House in all but two of the past 21 midterm elections. But Democrats are also saddled with an unpopular President Biden and a series of challenges for the country, including inflation levels that haven’t been seen in decades, the lingering effects of the still-ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and fraying trust in civic institutions — caused, in part, by Republican efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election.
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We’ll also point out Dems loses COULD BE WORSE than this, especially in the House:
Another way to look at this is that the forecast says it’s more likely Republicans have their largest majority since the Great Depression than Democrats keep the House majority. https://t.co/cZH9BNjmrJ
— Shane Goldmacher (@ShaneGoldmacher) June 30, 2022
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