New poll of NH GOP primary voters shows a major shift toward DeSantis ahead of 2024

Greg P. | 2:16 PM on June 22, 2022

A new poll of from the University of New Hampshire of likely GOP primary voters in the state shows Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis with a two-point lead over former President Donald Trump, 39%-37%. Trump led DeSantis last October in this poll by 25 points, 43%-18%:

New UNH survey of "like NH GOP primary voters" for 2024 (n=318):

DeSantis 39%
Trump 37%
Pence 9%
Haley 6%
Pompeo 1%
Noem 1%
Cruz 1%

Last October:
Trump 43%
DeSantis 18%
Haley 6%
Pence 4%
Cruz 2%
Noem 1% https://t.co/fbIQInjs8k

— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) June 22, 2022

From the UNH Survey Center (that last line — ouch):

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is now statistically tied with Former President Donald Trump in the New Hampshire Republican Primary. Support for DeSantis has more than doubled since October. DeSantis runs better against Biden than does Trump, a further sign of Trump’s weakening support among NH Republicans. Biden and Trump are increasingly unpopular in New Hampshire and only about half of members of each of their own parties want them to run for President in 2024. Other potential 2024 presidential candidates such as Vice President Kamala Harris, former Vice President Mike Pence, and Texas Senator Ted Cruz are also broadly unpopular in the state.

We’re not sure the Gerald Ford-Ronald Reagan comparison in 1980 holds true today, but this makes DeSantis Ronald Reagan:

The last ex-president to seriously consider running again was Gerald Ford in 1980. At this same point – summer '78 — an NH poll showed him tied at 38% with Ronald Reagan. Ford, of course, didn't end up running. pic.twitter.com/PbbaqkWDsc

— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) June 22, 2022