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Here's where things stand in the Oz-McCormick GOP primary for #PASEN

Welp. According to MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki, it looks like we won’t know who won the GOP primary between Dr. Mehmet Oz and David McCormick until JUNE.

THREAD ==>

“PA update: Oz leads McCormick by 1,241 votes (0.1%). It is inevitable that this will land in mandatory recount territory – a process that won’t begin until next week and could stretch into June. But it’s not clear who will be leading and by how much when the recount begins…”

“What we think is left to be counted:
– 31 precincts in Allegheny County due to technical issues. This should amount to 1,500-2,000 total GOP votes a& hey aren’t likely to be counted until next week. This is McCormick’s base & he’s been beating Oz 39-33 in Election Day votes here.”

“- Some precincts in Philadelphia have also yet to report their election Day vote. This should amount to ~900 total GOP votes and Oz has been beating McCormick by double-digits in the Election Day vote in Philly.
– Between 10k-15k uncounted mail ballots from across the state….”

“…McCormick continues to outpace Oz in the mail vote; 17k were counted yesterday and McCormick won them at a 32-25% clip.

– There will also be a small (maybe 2,000) pool of provisional ballots and an even smaller number of military ballots.”

“This will all play out in slow motion into next week. It is possible that with a strong performance with the remaining mail ballots and the Allegheny votes, McCormick could *just* catch Oz in the tally. But also…”

“…Oz could pad his lead with the Philly votes, and if he does even slightly better with the remaining mail ballots than he’s been doing — or if it turns out there’s just fewer of them than we’re now estimating — he’ll finish in first, maybe even by a comfortable-ish margin.”

“Again, though, wherever the initial count lands won’t be known until next next week. And the margin is all but certain to be well within the 0.5% threshold that will trigger a recount.”

“Also worth noting that the candidate who trails after the initial count is complete can decline the automatic recount. This has happened several times since PA’s recount law went into effect in 2004.”

***

Related:

#PASEN Oz vs. McCormick: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

‘They need to release an explanation’: Allegheny County, PA announces no vote update until *Friday* #PASEN

 

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