Don’t look now, but Europe is in the midst of an energy crisis and “the winter is coming”:
GAS MARKET: I don't want to alarm anyone, but European gas prices are up this morning >7% to a new all-time high, bringing their increase since Aug 1 to ~60%. The rally does not show any sign of slowing down. Gas inventories are seasonally very, very low. And the winter is coming
— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) September 14, 2021
And, yes, Russia in the middle of it:
Explainer on gas/energy prices: A big story this winter will be tight supplies as natural gas markets soar in the UK and continental Europe to record highs because of low inventories, raising fears of a severe economic hit and weather-induced shortages. https://t.co/MqqePovU7j
— FT Commodities (@ftcommodities) September 15, 2021
From the FT:
What is driving supply fears?
Concerns about tight supplies started with a prolonged cold winter that drained natural gas storage. Normally this would be refilled over the summer when demand for heating largely evaporates.
But storage filling has not happened at the pace traders would have liked in 2021. Russia has been sending less gas to Europe, for reasons fiercely debated in the industry. These range from Russia’s need to refill its own storage to suspicions that it is trying to pressure European governments, including Germany, to approve the start-up of the highly controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.
Europe’s reliance on wind power is also causing major disruptions:
Natural gas and electricity markets were already surging in Europe when a fresh catalyst emerged: The wind in the stormy North Sea stopped blowing. https://t.co/XbKaMMDUfs
— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) September 13, 2021
Recommended
Russia is being accused of limiting the supply. . .
Russia comes close to admitting it's put the squeeze on European natural gas supplies, with the Kremlin saying the speedy approval of Nord Stream 2 could balance record prices.
Reminder: capacity exists to send the same amount of gas through Ukraine today – h/t Reuters pic.twitter.com/6G4xkoOZO3
— David Sheppard (@OilSheppard) September 15, 2021
. . .to hasten the approval of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline:
European gas prices today hitting the oil equivalent of $150 a barrel (higher than crude has ever been), with fears of shortages this winter.
Will saying NS2 could solve the problem finally spark a reaction in Brussels or Westminster?
Background here: https://t.co/MLDmeezVTF
— David Sheppard (@OilSheppard) September 15, 2021
Hey, we’re not the ones who told NATO-member Germany to scrap its nuclear power to buy natural gas from NATO-foe Russia:
The hubris of the EU to push for market prices. Imagine, the EU wouldn't even subsidise the gas Russia sells, or in this case doesn't sell.
But it seems NS2 is exactly what it was planned to be: a Russian political and economic extortion scheme. https://t.co/jJHYcZ1Wx1
— toomas hendrik ilves (@IlvesToomas) September 14, 2021
Shorter Vladimir Putin: “this is what you want, this is what you get”:
A lot of the shortfall in European storage appears to be at Gazprom controlled facilities.
Putin’s comments on market-based pricing certainly suggests an element of “this is what you want, this is what you get”, or perhaps a willingness to become more of a price maker
— David Sheppard (@OilSheppard) September 13, 2021
But let’s not leave out the green energy industry that pushed to eliminate nuclear which is not being replaced with coal:
'Green' Germany: Coal shoots up as primary electricity source while wind drops to its lowest level https://t.co/2rO0HivwmY
— GWPF (@thegwpfcom) September 13, 2021
Well done, everybody.
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