Scott Gottlieb calls out the CDC over its garbage modeling of the Delta variant

Former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb had harsh words for the CDC and its modeling of the Delta variant.

In summary, the models are total garbage:

The wide dispersion in models forecasting the Delta wave, released by CDC, are deeply disappointing and not actionable. The huge variance in the estimates shows CDC doesn’t know how to model this wave, and has little practical idea whether we’re at beginning, middle, or end 1/n pic.twitter.com/FJvcjw6hVO

— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) July 24, 2021

At some point, people will realize how badly the CDC failed us? Right?

It’s another symptom of a more systemic bureaucratic disease. CDC has a retrospective mindset, it’s not a prospective agency resourced and poised to mount operational responses to crisis. The need for such capability is a big focus of my forthcoming book, Uncontrolled Spread 2/n

— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) July 24, 2021

Of note, the predictions in the UK were garbage, too:

A week ago, Neil Ferguson confidently predicted daily cases would top 100,000 a day in Great Britain and maybe reach 200,000. Since then, cases have dropped like a rock. Now, he says it may be over by October. What a flipflopping fraud.https://t.co/EKljsrkiwj

— Robbie Sherman (@RobbieSherman77) July 27, 2021

This is like going to a football game and shouting while your team is on defense, “watch out for a run or a pass!”:

The CDC’s models on Delta wave underscore this point. For the week ending August 14, CDC estimates there will be either an average of 10K infections a day, or more than 100K. Either the infection wave will be largely subsiding, or will be raging out of control. The CDC isn’t sure pic.twitter.com/rci9ZB3xhR

— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) July 24, 2021

Gottlieb goes on to say to we need to make major changes to how we respond to a public health crisis:

What’s needed? This isn’t CDC’s job alone. We lack an organized infrastructure to mobilize a response to public health crisis. We need a JSOC for public health response. For two years, HHS did not operationalize this kind of effort aside from Warp Speed. 4/n

— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) July 24, 2021

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He suggests we need an “action-oriented agency able to engage in assessing and mobilizing preparations against future risks”

For its part, CDC isn’t a prospectively-minded agency. They don’t do horizon scanning, make predictions and tie to policy recommendations, coordinate heavy lift capabilities like vaccination campaigns, engage in risk estimates, or collect intelligence on foreign areas of concern

— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) July 24, 2021

We need such a capability. An action-oriented agency able to engage in assessing and mobilizing preparations against future risks. Able to coordinate assessment of intelligence that informs on these risks. Able to become a clearing house for intel and operational direction. 6/n

— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) July 24, 2021

And the CDC will need to change its mindset for that to occur:

Could a reformed CDC play such a role? I outline in detail how in my book. But it’ll have to go back to its roots aimed at disease control and empower a new agency (maybe a new NIH institute) to take on many current “prevention”functions. CDC will need a national security mindset

— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) July 24, 2021

“The bottom line: CDC data has consistently been thorough, meticulous, and late. In other words, it wasn’t actionable in setting of fast moving crisis. That’s not the business CDC was in. They provide definitive answers, not partial info to inform current decisions in a crisis”:

The bottom line: CDC data has consistently been thorough, meticulous, and late. In other words, it wasn’t actionable in setting of fast moving crisis. That’s not the business CDC was in. They provide definitive answers, not partial info to inform current decisions in a crisis 7/n pic.twitter.com/1s2lOo2CtY

— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) July 24, 2021

Over to you, Congress:

In closing: we’ll need such an agency somewhere. It can be a CDC retasked with a greater focus on the national security dimension of its mission. It can be a new joint operational command. We’ll have to view these risks, the ability to horizon scan – and prepare, through new lens

— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) July 24, 2021

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