There’s about to be a major fight in the Senate over whether or not the $15 minimum wage can get passed as part of the massive Covid-19 relief bill released on Friday through the budget reconcilation process or not.
The thread from NBC News’ Sahil Kapur breaks it down:
Minimum wage thread ?
(warning: arcane Senate stuff herein)
— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) February 19, 2021
First up, the $15 provision IS in the House bill but President Biden doesn’t think it will survive the Senate parliamentarian under the Byrd rule:
So the $15 wage is in Biden’s Covid relief bill headed to the House floor next week. But he’s predicting it won’t survive. Why? He says it’ll likely get stripped out in the Senate under the “Byrd rule” that limits reconciliation to budget changes, i.e. spending and taxes. pic.twitter.com/PT7ckW9Ilp
— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) February 19, 2021
But Senators Bernie Sander and Chuck Schumer think it should be allowed:
Bernie Sanders, the Budget Committee chairman, and Chuck Schumer disagree. They’re crafting a case to the parliamentarian that it should be allowed. But there’s a decent chance she disagrees. https://t.co/0LFWWpxmVb
So what happens next?
— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) February 19, 2021
Now, here’s where Vice President Kamala Harris comes in. She CAN overrule the nonpartisan parliamentarian and it would then take 60 votes to overrule her:
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A bunch of progressives are suggesting an end-run: Have the VP preside over the Senate and rule the wage hike compliant, defying the parliamentarian. I’ve asked a number of experts and, yes, she can legally do that. And it’d take 60 votes to override her. But there are caveats!
— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) February 19, 2021
This is the reconciliation “nuclear” option:
Namely, it’s effectively going nuclear for the reconciliation process. If this majority can overrule the nonpartisan referee on what’s allowed, the next won’t be constrained. It sets a new precedent that anything goes in reconciliation if the party in power supports it.
— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) February 19, 2021
This idea was floated before by Sen. Ted Cruz in 2017:
Ted Cruz pushed this idea back in ‘17 to allow a broader Obamacare repeal when Republicans were agonizing over the Byrd rule. Mitch McConnell never entertained it. And John McCain put them out of their misery by killing the “skinny” repeal vehicle. pic.twitter.com/iXUFIAyRlx
— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) February 19, 2021
This would also put the president and vice president at odds:
One expert told me a VP has never overruled the parl. on the Byrd rule in its 30-year history. Still, it can be done. But Biden, who served 36 years in the chamber, is a Senate institutionalist in his bones. He favors the filibuster and appears unlikely to support this.
— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) February 19, 2021
But who knows. President Biden has hopes so high anything could happen:
All that said, Biden’s inclusion of the $15 wage in his Covid bill has raised expectations among a number of his supporters, who will be annoyed if it falls prey to a procedural issue few outside DC care about. An early test of Biden-progressive relations. <fin>
— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) February 19, 2021
To be continued. . .
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