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Stanford professor explains why the statistics quoted by Kayleigh McEnany in the Texas SCOTUS lawsuit are wrong

Kayleigh McEnany, acting in her personal capacity, highlighted a portion of the Texas SCOTUS lawsuit against Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia that cited an expert who claimed there was only a “one in a quadrillion to the 4th power” chance of Joe Biden winning all four of those states based on President Trump’s early lead on the morning of November 4.

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This is quite a large number, if true:

But the analysis behind this statistic is being challenged as the “early lead” cited was only because these four states didn’t count their absentee and mail-in vote until after polls closed while states like Florida counted as they were received:

Stanford Professor Justin Ryan Grimmer explained further in this thread, ending with “I’m frankly embarrassed that such statistical incompetence would appear in such a high profile venue”:

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And now we wait to see if SCOTUS will hear the case:

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