Lib BUZZKILL.
The latest polls for the New York Times show that Dem pickups of U.S. Senate seats in Alaska, Kansas, Montana and South Carolina are not likely at this point:
NYT-Siena polls have in rapid succession thrown some cold water on Dem Senate pickups in likely Trump states – Alaska, Kansas, Montana, and South Carolina (though the races were close in all of those states according to the polls)
— Kyle Kondik (@kkondik) October 23, 2020
Alaska:
ALASKA
Trump 45% (+6)
Biden 39%
Jorgensen 8%
.#AKsen:
Sullivan (R-inc) 45% (+8)
Gross (D) 37%
Howe (Alaska Independence) 10%@SienaResearch/@UpshotNYT, LV, 10/9-14https://t.co/LCT2i5icw8— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) October 16, 2020
Montana:
MONTANA
Trump 49% (+6)
Biden 43%
Jorgensen 3%
.#MTsen:
Daines (R-inc) 49% (+3)
Bullock (D) 46%#MTgov:
Gianforte (R) 48% (+4)
Cooney (D) 44%
Bishop (L) 4%
.#MT01:
Rosendale (R) 50% (+4)
Williams (D) 46%@SienaResearch/@UpshotNYT, LV, 10/18-20https://t.co/bmJUZyfHoU— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) October 23, 2020
Kansas:
KANSAS
Trump 48% (+7)
Biden 41%
Jorgensen 4%#KSsen:
Marshall (R) 46% (+4)
Bollier (D) 42%
Buckley (L) 4%@SienaResearch/@UpshotNYT, LV, 10/18-20https://t.co/1Q2cmFFx6A— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) October 22, 2020
South Carolina:
SOUTH CAROLINA
Trump 49% (+8)
Biden 41%
Jorgensen 2%
Hawkins 1%
.#SCsen:
Graham (R-inc) 46% (+6)
Harrison (D) 40%
Bledsoe (C) 4%@SienaResearch/@UpshotNYT, LV, 10/9-15 https://t.co/PzGwmcOqqN— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) October 15, 2020
And yesterday’s good debate performance by the president will only help:
these quotes in @GabbyOrr_ @burgessev story tell you a lot about the prize GOP leaders are most focused on right now https://t.co/cPhVnSnbY1 pic.twitter.com/iQDfzMbfGD
— Alex Burns (@alexburnsNYT) October 23, 2020
Nate Silver adds, “. . .I think a lot of the problem is that expectations ran a little ahead of themselves. . .”:
This is true but I think a lot of the problem is that expectations ran a little ahead of themselves in states where Democrats have a decent shot (and still do) but Republicans were always favored. https://t.co/Fpba2BnxRP
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 23, 2020
But stay focused, GOP:
In general, our forecasts have been very steady in these states and the Upshot/Siena polls showing narrow Republican leads have been right in line with our model's expectations. https://t.co/hQmmekjjW5 pic.twitter.com/eXKFTgV1jS
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 23, 2020
Because anything can still happen on a state-by-state basis:
And while it's tempting to think that all of these races will break in the same direction (so e.g. either Democrats lose all 4 or say win 3 of 4 in an epic landslide) this is a pretty quirky set of states/candidates/circumstances so I'm not sure that's necessarily true.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 23, 2020
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