Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal is warning of “massive” hit to GDP in 10 days as the enhanced unemployment insurance provision is set to expire.
“IN NOW JUST 10 DAYS, MILLIONS OF PEOPLE’S LIVES ARE SCHEDULED TO BE THROWN INTO DISARRAY”:
IN NOW JUST 10 DAYS, MILLIONS OF PEOPLE'S LIVES ARE SCHEDULED TO BE THROWN INTO DISARRAY
In today's @markets newsletter, I wrote about the very straightforward stakes of what's about to happen to the US economy https://t.co/3lrMAtznd7 pic.twitter.com/ypHtnBxts0
— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) July 15, 2020
Wherever you stand on the benefit, “the government is set to slash spending dramatically” if it’s not renewed:
The key thing I want to emphasize is that people keep talking about how things are "unprecedented" in the economy. And that's true so as far as it goes. But what's always true is that all spending is someone else's income. And the government is set to slash spending dramatically.
— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) July 15, 2020
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“Simple math” estimates that the extra $600/week equates to 4.6% of weekly GDP:
The scheduled GDP hit is going to be massive, without an adequate replacement. Simple math here from Charlie. https://t.co/pkvWY7wJxA
— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) July 15, 2020
Things *are* getting better, but keep an eye on the “rate of permanent job loses” which is “still accelerating”:
And while the unemployment rate is down from its peak, the reopening isn't going well, and in fact the rate of permanent job losses is still accelerating, as this chart from @calculatedrisk shows pic.twitter.com/QNvSsxM8LG
— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) July 15, 2020
And there’s “the housing reckoning” on the way:
On top of this, we've delayed the housing reckoning through a series of moratoriums that are coming to an end, which will only compound the crunch for millions of people. https://t.co/dERLt9rgeU
— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) July 15, 2020
Tick tock, Congress:
So there you have it. We'll see what happens over the next 10 days. Bear in mind though, that as of right now, there's no high level negotiations happening right now in DC https://t.co/pPDrCCREn0
— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) July 15, 2020
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