Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report outlined a nightmare scenario for Dems in 2020 where they wind the popular vote by around 5 million votes but President Trump wins reelection by a single electoral vote:
A very plausible 2020 scenario Dems have to take seriously:
Trump loses popular vote by ~5 million as Dems narrow deficit in TX, expand lead in CA & flip MI/PA blue
BUT Trump narrowly holds onto AZ, FL, NC & WI and wins reelection by a single electoral vote.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) June 19, 2019
Rep. Ted Lieu says this scenario is why Dems are holding their convention in Wisconsin which Hillary Clinton totally avoided in 2016:
This is one reason Democrats are having our national convention in Milwaukee.
— Ted Lieu (@tedlieu) June 19, 2019
Perpetual Dem lose Randy Bryce says “Trump will not win Wisconsin,” which we assume he thought wouldn’t happen the first time:
Trump will not win Wisconsin.
— Randy Bryce (@IronStache) June 19, 2019
And, ACHTUALLY, Trump has “a better chance of holding Wisconsin than MI or PA”:
Why does Trump have a better chance of holding Wisconsin than MI or PA in 2020? Here you go…
Non-college whites vs. African-Americans as % of electorate (rough estimate):
PA: 50% / 10%
MI: 53% / 13%
WI: 57% / 6% https://t.co/eIBoUCtlV1— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) June 19, 2019
Make it happen!
As someone who is just here for the chaos, I approve this message. https://t.co/2a9CahDTeR
— Drew McCoy (@_Drew_McCoy_) June 19, 2019
We expect both Trump and the eventual Dem will spend a considerable amount of time in Wisconsin:
A couple more thoughts on this:
1) Of the states above, AZ & WI strike me as the likeliest to be decisive “tipping point” states
2) FL is trending poorly for Dems & AZ/NC likely to be riper targets
3) If it comes down to one vote, Omaha’s #NE02 more winnable for Dems than #ME02— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) June 19, 2019
Note Wasserman has Florida going toward Trump despite the much-championed Quinnipiac poll yesterday showing Biden +9:
Aaaahhaahahahahah I’m so sick of Florida!!!
— Rob Sheridan (@rob_sheridan) June 19, 2019
More here:
Here's more or less what this nightmare scenario for Dems looks like in the @FiveThirtyEight Swing-o-Matic (replace Clinton's name w/ whatever Dem you wish): https://t.co/vYhzaL4bWs
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) June 19, 2019
***
Related:
The Florida Dems counter rally in Orlando is the saddest thing you’ll see today https://t.co/N0S6bigUVK
— Twitchy Team (@TwitchyTeam) June 19, 2019
Dem Congressman goes all 'Marcia, Marcia, Marcia!' to describe Trump's 2020 kickoff rally https://t.co/ZTClz1ml2a
— Twitchy Team (@TwitchyTeam) June 19, 2019
YUGE: Donald Trump breaks records with $24.8 million fundraising haul in less than 24 hours https://t.co/CCbNa83TSD
— Twitchy Team (@TwitchyTeam) June 19, 2019
Washington Post reporter documenting Trump rally crowd size bitten by fire ants https://t.co/DHNsxtmtOu
— Twitchy Team (@TwitchyTeam) June 19, 2019
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