Wow. This is some *powerful* information via MSNBC economic analyst and former Obama car czar Steven Rattner. So Trump is either going to win or lose the 2020 election? Really? That’s a bold prediction.
What’s even better, however, is that the first 2 charts actually show Trump winning the election so he went out and found a third one to make sure Joe Biden, who isn’t even the nominee, wins.
Chart 1: “Yale prof Ray Fair’s model accurately predicted Obama’s wins in 2008 and 2012, in part because of the incumbency factor.”
Yale prof Ray Fair’s model accurately predicted Obama’s wins in 2008 and 2012, in part because of the incumbency factor. (1/3)
My @Morning_Joe chart: pic.twitter.com/qBhsVbBe1Z— Steven Rattner (@SteveRattner) May 22, 2019
Chart 2: “While the Yale model predicted a Trump win in 2016, it overestimated his popular vote results, a likely consequence of his less than favorable personal qualities.”
While the Yale model predicted a Trump win in 2016, it overestimated his popular vote results, a likely consequence of his less than favorable personal qualities. (2/3)
My @Morning_Joe chart: pic.twitter.com/jyhjYlcsPb— Steven Rattner (@SteveRattner) May 22, 2019
Chart 3: “While the Yale model says economy and incumbency should give Trump a win in 2020, polls reflect the drag of Trump being Trump.”
While the Yale model says economy and incumbency should give Trump a win in 2020, polls reflect the drag of Trump being Trump. (3/3)
My @Morning_Joe chart: pic.twitter.com/tfDs2AGmRt— Steven Rattner (@SteveRattner) May 22, 2019
Anyway, he wrote this up for MSNBC.com here (if you’re interested):
On @Morning_Joe today, I discussed Trump’s formidable 2020 tailwind, with one model predicting a substantial win based on strong economy and incumbency. Will that be offset by the headwind of his personal qualities? https://t.co/iPdCnBRAki
— Steven Rattner (@SteveRattner) May 22, 2019
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