CAUTION: 'Poll' just out with Dem underdog leading in #PA18 is totally bogus

Earlier on Friday, the Twitter account BRD Polling put out a “poll” on the PA-18 Congressional race showing Democrat — and underdog — Conor Lamb with a 1-point lead over Republican Rick Saccone:

BREAKING: Our poll for #PA18 has been released

Conor Lamb (Democrat) 47% (+1)
Rick Saccone (Republican) 46%
Drew Gray Miller (Libertarian) 1%
Undecided: 6%@Saccone4PA18 @ConorLambPA https://t.co/cJdOM50Wfb

— BRD Polling (@brd_polling) March 2, 2018

But who are these “pollsters” anyway?

Anyone know anything about this pollster? https://t.co/O6OSOSbUyW

— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) March 2, 2018

Well, they’re fake and have a history of fake polls:

Just you know, @BRD_polling (the outfit with that supposed PA-18 poll) comes from the same group of scammers that released fake polls in GA-6 and AL-SEN. The goal is to move prediction markets using fake polls for profit.

Really, this is a test of your credulity.

— The Nats Won The World Series (@EsotericCD) March 2, 2018

Incidentally, I'm not speculating. I've dealt with these people before. CSP Polling (the CSP stood for "Cuck Shed Polls"), KP Polling, etc. They're based out of the PredictIt website and its comment boards (if not 'based' they at least hang out there). Not sure how many ppl.

— The Nats Won The World Series (@EsotericCD) March 2, 2018

I'm sure half the fun of it for them is seeing who, in the media on Twitter, they can get to bite on their fake polls and propagate them. But it is basically impossible for anyone conscientious to be fooled. Polling is a small biz and these ppl don't know how to fake data.

— The Nats Won The World Series (@EsotericCD) March 2, 2018

Official Statement on the Fate of BRD

By Timothy Blumenthal

Hello everyone. I guess I’ll just start off with the obvious. Yes, Blumenthal Research Daily is a fake pollster. The numbers used were random and I did little to no research before piecing together a rather sloppy google doc. The intended effect was self-explanatory, and as I was piecing together this train-wreck of a poll I was thinking through a four step process which goes as follows:

Take a race garnering national attention

Be the first to post a “poll” showing the underdog leading

Bask in the attention received by supporters of said underdog

Have a laugh at the poor naive souls who fell for this as well as the smart people who catch on to this being an obvious troll.

Notice how not one of those steps mentioned anything about PredictIt or any monetary gain. It is true I have gone on PredictIt and a great number of people in the comment sections of its markets were aware of BRD, although I never spent a penny on the markets I posted polls for. To say I did this for monetary gain is simply untrue, and even if it was, it would not have worked in the slightest. Other than a few hopeful Conor Lamb fans, almost nobody fell for the poll. People were quick to catch on, which did not surprise me in the slightest. I literally made the poll in fifteen minutes.

If you fell for this, too bad. You’re way too gullible and should probably receive some sort of treatment. If you caught on, good job but thank you for giving me exactly what I was looking for by allowing it to go viral. Also extra shoutout to Mr. Barro over at MSNBC for wanting me to be criminally investigated. Highlight of the day for sure.

As for who assisted me, this was a purely solo project. I had zero support from KG Polling or whatever other fellow pollsters were out there. They knew I was fake, of course, and LARPed in the comments, but we did not collaborate on any polls.

(just kidding kdawg helped with the data)