With Dems getting their butts kicked in the GA-06 special election, here’s something interesting to see: the professionals at the New York Times are on the same page as Trump supporter Bill Mitchell.
Here’s Eric Lipton:
Looks like we have more evidence that polling is flawed and reporters need to stop relying on it to shape coverage https://t.co/pd8slLeGoZ
— Eric Lipton (@EricLiptonNYT) June 21, 2017
And here’s Bill Mitchell, who famously outperformed all of the other pollsters in the 2016 election by citing a Halloween-mask index to show Trump was winning:
Proof #FakePolls only hurt Democrats. Convinced them to drop $40 million in GA6 when they had no chance. pic.twitter.com/INFr7njHy9
— Bill Mitchell (@mitchellvii) June 21, 2017
And he’s not wrong here:
Math is only as good as the variables you feed it. Wrong variables. https://t.co/PJVzFOKHCj
— Bill Mitchell (@mitchellvii) June 21, 2017
Nate Silver, however, disagrees. Here’s his response to Lipton:
Looks like we have more evidence that some NYT reporters don't know how to compute an average. https://t.co/pybBIl80Sr https://t.co/k34L8Cw0FT
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 21, 2017
* The final polls in GA-06 showed the race almost exactly tied.
* Polls miss by an average of ~4 points in House races.
* Handel won by 3.7.— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 21, 2017
And not only is Silver calling out the Lipton, he’s calling out the other Nate over at the NYT’s Upshot blog:
Wow, @UpshotNYT is predicting an exact tie! (Margin of error +/- 11 points). https://t.co/oM9nHMKy8T pic.twitter.com/nOZvxfXfVs
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 20, 2017
Oh, man. This loss just keeps getting better and better.
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