The CDC issued a new estimate of the prevalence of Omicron vs. Delta in the United States last week that “has dropped significantly from 73.2% w/ a 95% prediction interval of 34-94.9% down to 22.5% w/ a 95% prediction interval of 15.4-31.5%.”

This is a MAJOR revision:

What’s 51% between friends?

Nate Silver went as far as to say the “CDC’s method is crap and should be ignored going forward”:

Here’s what the CDC says changed:

It also means that many of the infections we’re seeing are Delta and potentially more likely to lead to hospitalization and/or death:

We’re two years into this whole pandemic and the data is still for s*it?

There *should* be a number of corrections right now:

Keep in mind, this has real-world consequences:


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