Nate Silver: '...schools have been open long enough that it's looking somewhat unlikely we'll have a national COVID surge caused by school re-openings'

Nate Silver tweeted on Tuesday that there’s still a chance of problems this winter but, right now, “it’s looking somewhat unlikely we’ll have a national COVID surge caused by school re-openings”:

It doesn't preclude a winter surge later. But schools have been open long enough that it's looking somewhat unlikely we'll have a national COVID surge caused by school re-openings. Cases are still falling in most of the country.https://t.co/i8ElZQJZ5p pic.twitter.com/wunbuvY1FN

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 28, 2021

Good news for the Northeast as they’ve now been in school for a little over two weeks:

In the Northeast, the numbers are relatively flat, but that's partly because of a (probably school-related) increase in testing. In New Jersey, for instance, cases are down 8% over the past two weeks, but tests are up 38%. Meanwhile, NYC's positive test rate continues to decline. pic.twitter.com/ml3LbWP1uG

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 28, 2021

“Let me find my *shocked face*”:

So it works here just like it has for more than a year in Europe, mostly unmasked. Let me find my *shocked face* https://t.co/VRkpdkNLqW

— Stacey – Recovered & Terminally Unvaxed (@ScotsFyre) September 28, 2021

And this really IS “good news”:

Good news👇 https://t.co/iQE5EVaisG

— Rebecca Jarvis (@RebeccaJarvis) September 28, 2021

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Also, this is what many expected would happen:

Presented like new news but it’s been known for well over a year that schools don’t drive spread. https://t.co/tgYgFXXh1B

— Laura Fagan (@laurajfagan) September 28, 2021

But, of course, not everyone is happy with Silver’s observation:

There he is…back in the wild…famed infectious disease expert Nate Silver with his expert views on COVID and future spread.

We of course all know that looking at national data in the abstract is always the best way to make these sorts of definitive statements. https://t.co/MLu6BYgpeJ

— Jordan Tenenbaum (@jtenenbaum) September 28, 2021

And:

This is stupid and thoughtless. Silver constantly uses "national" trends to downplay COVID, when the issue is AND HAS ALWAYS BEEN regional – based on local and regional mitigation strategies. Especially true in schools. https://t.co/OL4rTux2Bb

— Dennis Yedwab (@dennisyedwab) September 28, 2021

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