AIDS and gay rights activist Peter Staley took to Twitter to explain why the CDC’s Provincetown study that they’re using to justify new mask guidance may be fatally flawed.
In summary, the CDC is using a sample that’s 85% male and they chose a weekend in Provincetown called “Bear Week” that included, um, lots of activities that will spread COVID-19:
If the CDC has increased their Delta Ro because of the Ptown cohort, then they are overstating it for the general population. The cohort was 85% male (WaPo and NYT have both failed to mention this). Hello, it was Bear Week. @apoorva_nyc rightly mentions packed bars, etc., but /1 https://t.co/VGYHqPMqQ3
— Peter Staley (@peterstaley) July 30, 2021
Do you think this might skew the data?
… everyone is missing the horny bear in the room. Bears go to Ptown to have lots of fun which includes lots of sex. News flash, gay men KISS when they have sex. /2
— Peter Staley (@peterstaley) July 30, 2021
And:
If you asked an ID expert to suggest the most efficient way for an infected vaxd person to infect another vaxd person, she'd say "let them deeply kiss for half a minute."
Hoping CDC used other cohorts for their new Ro. Ptown's is skewed by (gay) boys being boys. /end
— Peter Staley (@peterstaley) July 30, 2021
Johns Hopkins epidemiologist calls this, “really important behavioral context”:
Really important behavioral context 🐻 https://t.co/6x49o4j4tR
— Jennifer Nuzzo, DrPH (@JenniferNuzzo) July 30, 2021
Recommended
And this would be like only using data from Spring Break in Daytona Beach:
If the CDC revised all of its priors about COVID based on an analysis of spring break on Daytona Beach, people would have some understandable questions about that. But that's a pretty good approximation for Provincetown on a July 4 weekend. https://t.co/0WbBXL0azw
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 30, 2021
Don’t forget, they also based this on the study out of India, too:
I don't think the CDC could possibly have selected a less representative sample to measure viral load and justify post-vax masking than "Bear Week" in Provincetown. Their two pieces of evidence were an Indian study based on non-US approved vaccines and…this. https://t.co/AWLTVbTdaG
— Aaron Astor (@AstorAaron) July 30, 2021
Over to you, CDC. Explain yourselves:
Addendum — Even during its gayest week, Ptown is NOT 85% male tourists. The cohort skews 85% male for a reason. CDC is being too politically correct in not explaining this skew.
— Peter Staley (@peterstaley) July 30, 2021
***
Join the conversation as a VIP Member