South Florida is on alert as Tropical Storm Elsa has formed in the Atlantic and, according to the latest track, will pass near Key West early next week:
Tropical storm #Elsa has formed in the Atlantic. The system is just under 900 miles to the east of the #WindwardIslands. Here are the probabilities of tropical storm force winds for a few select locations. Stay with @nbc6https://t.co/PKdbgxwLAa pic.twitter.com/RACtEEXHeI
— Adam Berg (@AdamBergNBC6) July 1, 2021
And the Miami Herald called it a “record-breaking fifth named storm of the season”:
JUST IN: Tropical Storm Elsa, a record-breaking fifth named storm of the season, has formed in the Atlantic, with South Florida in its cone of uncertainty for early next week. https://t.co/w4CdW8BOIP
— Miami Herald (@MiamiHerald) July 1, 2021
Sigh.
And here’s meteorologist Ryan Maue explaining why technology improvements make these “records” meaningless as we’re detecting and naming storms that in the past would haven’t even been observed:
With naming of Tropical Stotm Elsa as 5th storm so early, good time to read a new blog written by NHC concerning the climatology context of the 2020 Season (and now 2021):
Be wary of any records w/names & numbers of storms b/c of observation tech changeshttps://t.co/uPbYBfexcT
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) July 1, 2021
And “the doubling in the number of [Atlantic] named storms over a century is very likely due to technology change, not natural or man-made climate change”:
"[T]he doubling in the number of [Atlantic] named storms over a century is very likely due to technology change, not natural or man-made climate change." 🌀
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) July 1, 2021
The fact is we’re naming storms that we only see on satellite that would have only been an issue to the unlucky mariners who just happened to get in their way:
Short-lived storms in the open ocean — that we readily observe with satellites today — were likely missed decades ago unless an unlucky ship crossed paths. ⚓🌀
Early or pre- season storms fit this category especially so far in 2021.
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) July 1, 2021
There have been other technology improvements as well:
Technological improvements like satellites & aircraft radar have also introduced a change in how we observe the maximum intensity and evolution of hurricanes on short time scales e.g.
Intensity info from measuring eye temperature from space (1960s-) or flying thru it (1940s-)
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) July 1, 2021
“Along the United States coastline, the historical record does not show an increase in either frequency or intensity of landfalling hurricanes”:
In summary, the Atlantic tropical storms and Hurricanes that matter most are those that impact land.
Along the United States coastline, the historical record does not show an increase in either frequency or intensity of landfalling hurricanes. 🌀
https://t.co/NpUUTZ3529— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) July 1, 2021
And because of changes made by the NHC,the “historical record is not homogeneous & care must be taken before blindly applying trend analysis”:
Addendum: the practices and policies of the NHC have changed over the decades in what qualifies as a "named storm" e.g. Subtropical Storms getting names since 2001.
The historical record is not homogeneous & care must be taken before blindly applying trend analysis. ✔— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) July 1, 2021
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