‘Good job, everyone’: Axios reporter debunks his own article on unemployment benefits and fraud

Good job, everyone:

Good job, everyone.

Government again at its best. https://t.co/r98wftzNf8

— Pradheep J. Shanker (@Neoavatara) June 10, 2021

But that 50% number does seem high:

1) We knew there would be some fraud and early in the pandemic that cost was well worth it.
2) 50 percent seems like a lot, and is bad.
3) This should be the last nail in the coffin for opposition to winding down UI. https://t.co/vGmA2noMSP

— Foster (@foster_type) June 10, 2021

Because if this is true, wow:

Fraud is expected, but half would/should be a massive scandal. https://t.co/11Os0Y2NLg

— Scott Lincicome (@scottlincicome) June 10, 2021

But it might not be true at all, as Axios’ Felix Salmon explained on Twitter as the “data comes from security companies with skin in the game” and who are trying to sell ant-fraud products to the government:

First, yes, this data comes from security companies with skin in the game — https://t.co/8lMKYUlBqn and LexisNexis. Also, crime statistics are always fuzzy. There's nothing here that's precise. On the other hand, government sources aren't disputing these numbers.

— Felix Salmon (@felixsalmon) June 10, 2021

LOL he’s debunking his own story?

The big picture is that unemployment fraud has become systematized. It's sold on a SAAS basis on the dark web, and it's operated by very sophisticated international syndicates in Russia, China, Nigeria, and increasingly Romania.

— Felix Salmon (@felixsalmon) June 10, 2021

For a long time during the pandemic, states weren't fighting back against this fraud *at all*. They were too busy just trying to get their claims out. To this day, many states still lack the kind of fraud-prevention tools that are necessary.

— Felix Salmon (@felixsalmon) June 10, 2021

Salmon points out that even lower estimates of the amount of fraud is bad:

Do I know for sure that the number is $400b and not $250b? No. But even the lower estimates I've been getting are still enormous — bigger than China's entire national defense budget.

— Felix Salmon (@felixsalmon) June 10, 2021

More here:

Put yourself in the shoes of a crime syndicate that has worked out how to game the system. You're naturally going to steal as much as you can as fast as you can, before that window closes. What was stopping this? Very, very little.

— Felix Salmon (@felixsalmon) June 10, 2021

Just got a quote from @genebsperling about this. "Widespread fraud at the state level in pandemic unemployment insurance during the previous Administration is one of the most serious challenges we inherited…"

— Felix Salmon (@felixsalmon) June 10, 2021

“…President Biden has been clear that this type of activity from criminal syndicates is despicable and unacceptable. It is why we passed $2 billion for UI modernizations in the American Rescue Plan."

— Felix Salmon (@felixsalmon) June 10, 2021

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