CNN medical analyst Dr. Céline Gounder basically told FiveThrityEight’s stats expert Nate Silver to stay in his lane and that he’s not qualified to comment on the FDA and CDC’s decision to pause the J&J vaccine after 6 women out of almost 7 million people vaccinated developed serious blood clots:
With all due respect to @NateSilver538, he is not an expert on the psychology of vaccine confidence. He is a poll aggregator and political pundit. He is not an infectious disease specialist, epidemiologist, vaccinologist, virologist, immunologist, or behavioral scientist. pic.twitter.com/HBrI6zj9aa
— Céline Gounder, MD, ScM, FIDSA (@celinegounder) April 14, 2021
She’s arguing that people don’t trust the health system and government and that the FDA and CDC’s decision to pause the vaccine will actually increase trustworthiness:
3/ It's essential that the CDC and FDA prove themselves trustworthy. Worries about vaccine safety and efficacy and a lack of trust in the health system and government drive low confidence in vaccines. pic.twitter.com/OwLUmyh8Fc
— Céline Gounder, MD, ScM, FIDSA (@celinegounder) April 13, 2021
And:
4/ The CDC and FDA must show they're taking seriously any risk, even the most minuscule, and continuously evaluating vaccine safety and efficacy honestly, rigorously, and transparently. By dismissing any risk, we could fuel greater mistrust.
— Céline Gounder, MD, ScM, FIDSA (@celinegounder) April 13, 2021
But, for starters, this is exactly Silver’s lane:
It is ridiculous to say that Nate Silver is not qualified to speak about how a government action might shape public opinion, or on the types of messaging around issues of risk and reward that are likely to be effective. That *is* his lane. https://t.co/gC8qEsBQsp
— James Surowiecki (@JamesSurowiecki) April 14, 2021
Silver did respond to the attack and pointed out that his study of public opinion makes him more than qualified to question what the FDA and CDC did:
I guess I'm old-fashioned but I tend to think that when your first instinct is to attack someone's credentials, you don't have a good argument, especially when it comes to complex multidisciplinary policy questions that it's good to have different perspectives on. https://t.co/jTzLT2Rvor
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 14, 2021
Also, the most important aspect of whether the the decision to suspend the J&J vaccine is correct is the effect it will have on public opinion about the vaccines, so having a background in studying public opinion is pretty relevant.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 14, 2021
I also have a lot of fairly unique first-hand experience in trying to communicate complex statistical information under intense public scrutiny. I'm all for expertise but these are incredibly complicated questions and it should be defined broadly and not narrowly.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 14, 2021
She then asked how Silver would “rebuild that trust” in the health system or the government:
Those most resistant to vaccination right now are those who do not trust the health system or the government? How would your approach rebuild that trust? https://t.co/zfymul2xsh
— Céline Gounder, MD, ScM, FIDSA (@celinegounder) April 14, 2021
And she told Silver to do his HW:
.@NateSilver538 At a minimum, review the behavioral science data on vaccine confidence before opining. Here are a couple to get you started:https://t.co/qB4PaS15Mthttps://t.co/CcgLuPAo3K
Anything by Heidi Larson.OK, back to seeing patients.
— Céline Gounder, MD, ScM, FIDSA (@celinegounder) April 14, 2021
Um, okay? Since we have a real-world experience in Europe over the pause in the AZ vaccine, does that count?
COVID-19 is a unique enough circumstance that *everybody* is just making educated guesses. But it surely seems relevant that hesitancy about the AZ vaccine greatly increased in EU countries that paused administration of it, but not in the UK which didn't.https://t.co/GnN8ilIrg2 pic.twitter.com/9F4IVvTLKq
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 14, 2021
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