Here’s where things stand this morning in Arizona

Posted at 7:03 am on November 05, 2020 by Greg Pollowitz

Good morning! We still don’t know who won the election but it should be clear to everyone by now that Fox News and the AP called Arizona too early.

But don’t take our word on it. Here’s Nate Silver saying the same thing:

Even Nate Silver agrees that calling AZ was a bad move and should be retracted:

“…I sure as heck don’t think the state should have been called by anyone, and I think the calls that were previously made should be retracted now.” https://t.co/8ffFNNjBC5

— Jason Miller (@JasonMillerinDC) November 5, 2020

With that said, here’s where things stand this morning. . .

As predicted by the Trump campaign yesterday, the votes counted on Wednesday broke for the president and there still are an estimated 400,000+ ballots to go:

That drop was 62,002 ballots. 35,911 to Trump, 25,128 to Biden. This is 57.9% Trump to 40.5% Biden

The difference in the county went from 85,297 to 74,514

— The AZ – abc15 – Data Guru (@Garrett_Archer) November 5, 2020

The president needs 68,390 votes to catch Joe Biden:

Here are the statewide stats on that Maricopa drop of 62k ballots. Trump now needs 68,390 to catch Biden. There are approximately 430k or so ballots left in the state. pic.twitter.com/a4u9FPkx8Y

— The AZ – abc15 – Data Guru (@Garrett_Archer) November 5, 2020

Counts:

ARIZONA

Biden 1,469,341 50.5% (+2.4)
Trump 1,400,951 48.1%

2,910,053 votes counted. Estimated >99% in

Via @DecisionDeskHQ https://t.co/G2KCbEeryg

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) November 5, 2020

But we’ll have to wait and see if these last ballots can put Trump over the top:

While on the surface good, this drop is a "tread water" for what Trump would need to flip the state. As we get closer to the end, the ballots get less friendly (ballot drop off uni will have a lot more Independents in them).

— The AZ – abc15 – Data Guru (@Garrett_Archer) November 5, 2020

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